Aptus Defined Etf Forward View - Simple Regression
| DRSK Etf | USD 28.37 0.08 0.28% |
Aptus Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of Aptus Defined's share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aptus Defined, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aptus Defined hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aptus Defined Risk from the perspective of Aptus Defined response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aptus Defined using Aptus Defined's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aptus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aptus Defined's stock price.
Aptus Defined Implied Volatility | 0.22 |
Aptus Defined's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aptus Defined Risk stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aptus Defined's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aptus Defined stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aptus Defined's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aptus Defined Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 28.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.04. Aptus Defined after-hype prediction price | USD 28.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Defined to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aptus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aptus Defined Risk will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0138% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Aptus Defined trading at USD 28.37, that is roughly USD 0.003901 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aptus Defined's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aptus Defined Risk options at the current volatility level of 0.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Aptus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aptus Defined's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aptus Defined's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aptus Defined stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aptus Defined's open interest, investors have to compare it to Aptus Defined's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aptus Defined is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aptus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Aptus Defined Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aptus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aptus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aptus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aptus Defined Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aptus Defined Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 28.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptus Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptus Defined's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aptus Defined Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aptus Defined | Aptus Defined Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aptus Defined Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aptus Defined's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aptus Defined's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.85 and 28.86, respectively. We have considered Aptus Defined's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptus Defined etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptus Defined etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4433 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1458 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0051 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.0392 |
Predictive Modules for Aptus Defined
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptus Defined Risk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptus Defined's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aptus Defined After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aptus Defined at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aptus Defined or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Aptus Defined, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aptus Defined Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aptus Defined's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aptus Defined's historical news coverage. Aptus Defined's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.87 and 28.87, respectively. We have considered Aptus Defined's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aptus Defined is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aptus Defined Risk is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aptus Defined Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Aptus Defined is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aptus Defined backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aptus Defined, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.37 | 28.37 | 0.00 |
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Aptus Defined Hype Timeline
Aptus Defined Risk is currently traded for 28.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Aptus is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aptus Defined is about 306.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.36. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Defined to cross-verify your projections.Aptus Defined Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aptus Defined's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aptus Defined's future price movements. Getting to know how Aptus Defined's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aptus Defined may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LCTU | BlackRock Carbon Transition | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.78 | (0.04) | 1.17 | (1.24) | 3.74 | |
| ARKF | ARK Fintech Innovation | (0.28) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.42 | (4.48) | 7.79 | |
| BAFE | Brown Advisory Flexible | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.79 | (0.04) | 1.21 | (1.28) | 3.58 | |
| FDLO | Fidelity Low Volatility | 0.68 | 4 per month | 0.45 | (0.01) | 0.93 | (0.72) | 2.95 | |
| LIT | Global X Lithium | (0.49) | 7 per month | 1.39 | 0.15 | 2.62 | (2.69) | 6.39 | |
| GLOV | Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta | 0.03 | 4 per month | 0.43 | (0.02) | 0.75 | (0.64) | 2.51 | |
| BLOK | Amplify Transformational Data | (0.70) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.85 | (4.68) | 9.87 | |
| GSEW | Goldman Sachs Equal | (0.99) | 3 per month | 0.71 | (0.02) | 1.24 | (1.41) | 3.24 | |
| QVML | Invesco Exchange Traded | 0.49 | 16 per month | 0.72 | (0.03) | 1.03 | (1.05) | 3.61 | |
| EUSA | iShares MSCI USA | (0.32) | 2 per month | 0.66 | (0.02) | 1.23 | (1.33) | 3.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aptus Defined
For every potential investor in Aptus, whether a beginner or expert, Aptus Defined's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aptus Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aptus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aptus Defined's price trends.Aptus Defined Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aptus Defined etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aptus Defined could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aptus Defined by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aptus Defined Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptus Defined etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptus Defined shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptus Defined etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptus Defined Risk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1409.49 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.68 |
Aptus Defined Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aptus Defined's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptus Defined's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptus etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3929 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5228 | |||
| Variance | 0.2733 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aptus Defined
The number of cover stories for Aptus Defined depends on current market conditions and Aptus Defined's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aptus Defined is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aptus Defined's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptus Defined to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Investors evaluate Aptus Defined Risk using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Aptus Defined's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Aptus Defined's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Aptus Defined's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Aptus Defined should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Aptus Defined's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.