Bright Minds Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DRUG Stock | USD 87.00 3.39 3.75% |
Bright Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bright Minds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, The RSI of Bright Minds' share price is at 55 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bright Minds, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.21) | EPS Estimate Current Year (6.49) | EPS Estimate Next Year (11.80) | Wall Street Target Price 153.7388 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.00) |
Using Bright Minds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bright Minds Biosciences from the perspective of Bright Minds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bright Minds Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 88.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.23. Bright Minds after-hype prediction price | USD 87.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Minds to cross-verify your projections. Bright Minds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bright price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bright using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bright charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bright Minds Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Bright Minds' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-12-31 | Previous Quarter 51.4 M | Current Value 82.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 22.2 M |
Bright Minds Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bright Minds Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 88.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33, mean absolute percentage error of 18.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bright Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bright Minds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bright Minds Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bright Minds | Bright Minds Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bright Minds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bright Minds' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bright Minds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.16 and 93.76, respectively. We have considered Bright Minds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bright Minds stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bright Minds stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0038 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3316 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0447 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.2272 |
Predictive Modules for Bright Minds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bright Minds Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bright Minds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bright Minds After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bright Minds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bright Minds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bright Minds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bright Minds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bright Minds' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bright Minds' historical news coverage. Bright Minds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.18 and 91.82, respectively. We have considered Bright Minds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bright Minds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bright Minds Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bright Minds Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bright Minds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bright Minds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bright Minds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.78 | 4.80 | 2.29 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
87.00 | 87.00 | 0.00 |
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Bright Minds Hype Timeline
Bright Minds Biosciences is currently traded for 87.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Bright is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 163.82%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.78%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bright Minds is about 12631.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 86.97. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.29. Bright Minds Biosciences had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:5 split on the 14th of July 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Minds to cross-verify your projections.Bright Minds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bright Minds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bright Minds' future price movements. Getting to know how Bright Minds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bright Minds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LBRX | LB Pharmaceuticals Common | 0.59 | 8 per month | 3.37 | 0.13 | 9.38 | (6.59) | 23.59 | |
| DSGN | Design Therapeutics | (0.04) | 11 per month | 3.36 | 0.17 | 10.04 | (5.98) | 29.54 | |
| AURA | Aura Biosciences | 0.10 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.74 | (5.88) | 18.08 | |
| ENGN | enGene Holdings Common | (0.41) | 5 per month | 4.10 | 0.09 | 11.36 | (5.79) | 61.40 | |
| DMAC | DiaMedica Therapeutics | 0.02 | 12 per month | 4.24 | 0.08 | 7.69 | (6.47) | 24.12 | |
| IMAB | I Mab | (0.58) | 5 per month | 4.63 | 0.05 | 10.53 | (8.92) | 33.43 | |
| ALT | Altimmune | (0.07) | 5 per month | 4.32 | 0.10 | 9.22 | (4.73) | 33.75 | |
| ANNX | Annexon | 0.43 | 7 per month | 3.33 | 0.21 | 11.30 | (7.54) | 35.10 | |
| GALT | Galectin Therapeutics | 0.07 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 9.46 | (8.89) | 43.49 | |
| KRRO | Frequency Therapeutics | (0.49) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.98 | (8.07) | 91.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bright Minds
For every potential investor in Bright, whether a beginner or expert, Bright Minds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bright Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bright. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bright Minds' price trends.Bright Minds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bright Minds stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bright Minds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bright Minds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bright Minds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bright Minds stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bright Minds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bright Minds stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bright Minds Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bright Minds Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bright Minds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bright Minds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bright stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.94 | |||
| Variance | 24.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bright Minds
The number of cover stories for Bright Minds depends on current market conditions and Bright Minds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bright Minds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bright Minds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bright Minds Short Properties
Bright Minds' future price predictability will typically decrease when Bright Minds' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bright Minds Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bright Minds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bright Minds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 82.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bright Minds to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bright Minds. If investors know Bright will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bright Minds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bright Minds Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bright that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bright Minds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bright Minds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bright Minds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bright Minds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bright Minds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bright Minds is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bright Minds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.