GraniteShares ETF Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DRUP Etf | 58.38 0.86 1.50% |
GraniteShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of GraniteShares ETF's share price is below 20 suggesting that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GraniteShares ETF hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GraniteShares ETF Trust from the perspective of GraniteShares ETF response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards GraniteShares ETF using GraniteShares ETF's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards GraniteShares using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of GraniteShares ETF's stock price.
GraniteShares ETF Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
GraniteShares ETF's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of GraniteShares ETF Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if GraniteShares ETF's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that GraniteShares ETF stock will not fluctuate a lot when GraniteShares ETF's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 58.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.84. GraniteShares ETF after-hype prediction price | USD 58.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GraniteShares | Build AI portfolio with GraniteShares Etf |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current GraniteShares contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that GraniteShares ETF Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With GraniteShares ETF trading at USD 58.38, that is roughly USD 0.0106 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating GraniteShares ETF's daily price movement you should consider acquiring GraniteShares ETF Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 GraniteShares Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast GraniteShares ETF's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in GraniteShares ETF's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for GraniteShares ETF stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current GraniteShares ETF's open interest, investors have to compare it to GraniteShares ETF's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of GraniteShares ETF is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GraniteShares. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
GraniteShares ETF Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GraniteShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GraniteShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze GraniteShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GraniteShares ETF Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GraniteShares ETF Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 58.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GraniteShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GraniteShares ETF's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GraniteShares ETF Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares ETF | GraniteShares ETF Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GraniteShares ETF Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GraniteShares ETF's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GraniteShares ETF's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.91 and 59.37, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares ETF's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GraniteShares ETF etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GraniteShares ETF etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0766 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6244 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.84 |
Predictive Modules for GraniteShares ETF
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GraniteShares ETF Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GraniteShares ETF's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GraniteShares ETF After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GraniteShares ETF at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GraniteShares ETF or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of GraniteShares ETF, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GraniteShares ETF Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GraniteShares ETF's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GraniteShares ETF's historical news coverage. GraniteShares ETF's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.03 and 59.47, respectively. We have considered GraniteShares ETF's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GraniteShares ETF is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GraniteShares ETF Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
GraniteShares ETF Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as GraniteShares ETF is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GraniteShares ETF backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GraniteShares ETF, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.23 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.38 | 58.25 | 0.22 |
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GraniteShares ETF Hype Timeline
GraniteShares ETF Trust is currently traded for 58.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. GraniteShares is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 58.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. The volatility of related hype on GraniteShares ETF is about 2733.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.39. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares ETF to cross-verify your projections.GraniteShares ETF Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GraniteShares ETF's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GraniteShares ETF's future price movements. Getting to know how GraniteShares ETF's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GraniteShares ETF may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRND | Pacer Trendpilot | (0.35) | 5 per month | 0.62 | (0.04) | 1.09 | (1.12) | 2.68 | |
| FCTR | First Trust Lunt | 0.02 | 1 per month | 1.46 | (0.04) | 1.95 | (2.38) | 5.47 | |
| INQQ | India Internet Ecommerce | 0.07 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 1.05 | (1.68) | 5.06 | |
| XDQQ | Innovator Growth 100 Accelerated | 0.66 | 2 per month | 1.19 | (0.07) | 1.69 | (1.73) | 5.41 | |
| SPXN | ProShares SP 500 | (0.04) | 3 per month | 0.85 | (0.09) | 1.25 | (1.47) | 3.93 | |
| GSJY | Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta | 0.10 | 1 per month | 0.79 | 0.08 | 1.90 | (1.69) | 4.61 | |
| TOLL | Tema Monopolies and | 0.14 | 5 per month | 0.80 | (0.01) | 1.62 | (1.14) | 4.44 | |
| DIVL | Madison ETFs Trust | (0.03) | 1 per month | 0.39 | 0.14 | 1.35 | (1.12) | 2.81 | |
| TTEQ | T Rowe Price | (0.17) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.08 | (2.79) | 7.16 | |
| CSRE | Cohen Steers Real | 0.05 | 1 per month | 0.66 | (0.01) | 1.34 | (1.08) | 3.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares ETF
For every potential investor in GraniteShares, whether a beginner or expert, GraniteShares ETF's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GraniteShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GraniteShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GraniteShares ETF's price trends.GraniteShares ETF Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GraniteShares ETF etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GraniteShares ETF could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GraniteShares ETF by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares ETF Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GraniteShares ETF etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GraniteShares ETF shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GraniteShares ETF etf market strength indicators, traders can identify GraniteShares ETF Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GraniteShares ETF Risk Indicators
The analysis of GraniteShares ETF's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GraniteShares ETF's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graniteshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9497 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Variance | 1.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GraniteShares ETF
The number of cover stories for GraniteShares ETF depends on current market conditions and GraniteShares ETF's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GraniteShares ETF is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GraniteShares ETF's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares ETF to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in GraniteShares Etf, please use our How to Invest in GraniteShares ETF guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
GraniteShares ETF Trust's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on GraniteShares's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate GraniteShares ETF's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since GraniteShares ETF's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between GraniteShares ETF's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding GraniteShares ETF should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, GraniteShares ETF's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.