Drax Group Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DRXGY Stock | USD 25.25 0.00 0.00% |
Drax Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Drax Group's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Drax Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Drax Group PLC from the perspective of Drax Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Drax Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 25.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47. Drax Group after-hype prediction price | USD 25.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Drax |
Drax Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Drax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Drax using various technical indicators. When you analyze Drax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Drax Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Drax Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 25.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Drax Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Drax Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Drax Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Drax Group | Drax Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Drax Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Drax Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Drax Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.82 and 27.68, respectively. We have considered Drax Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Drax Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Drax Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9188 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1172 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1245 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0055 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.47 |
Predictive Modules for Drax Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Drax Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Drax Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Drax Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Drax Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Drax Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Drax Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Drax Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Drax Group's historical news coverage. Drax Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.82 and 27.68, respectively. We have considered Drax Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Drax Group is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Drax Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Drax Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Drax Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Drax Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Drax Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.25 | 25.25 | 0.00 |
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Drax Group Hype Timeline
Drax Group PLC is currently traded for 25.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Drax is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.57%. %. The volatility of related hype on Drax Group is about 4339.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.22. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.8. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Drax Group PLC last dividend was issued on the 25th of August 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Drax Group to cross-verify your projections.Drax Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Drax Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Drax Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Drax Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Drax Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EDRWY | Electric Power Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.60 | |
| PUPOF | Public Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.28 | |
| EPWDF | Electric Power Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TEPCY | Tohoku Electric Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STECF | Scatec ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.04 | |
| CSGEF | China Suntien Green | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35.00 | |
| CGKEF | The Chugoku Electric | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BJWTY | Beijing Enterprises Water | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IRDEY | Iren SpA ADR | (0.56) | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ENGGF | Enags SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Drax Group
For every potential investor in Drax, whether a beginner or expert, Drax Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Drax Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Drax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Drax Group's price trends.Drax Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Drax Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Drax Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Drax Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Drax Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Drax Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Drax Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Drax Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Drax Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Drax Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Drax Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Drax Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting drax pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9946 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Variance | 5.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Drax Group
The number of cover stories for Drax Group depends on current market conditions and Drax Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Drax Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Drax Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Drax Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Drax Group's price analysis, check to measure Drax Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Drax Group is operating at the current time. Most of Drax Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Drax Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Drax Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Drax Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.