Descartes Systems Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

DSGX Stock  USD 81.87  0.05  0.06%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Descartes Systems Group on the next trading day is expected to be 81.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.07. Descartes Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Descartes Systems' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Descartes Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Descartes Systems Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Descartes Systems' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.19
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.2876
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.5675
Wall Street Target Price
111.0769
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.605
Using Descartes Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Descartes Systems Group from the perspective of Descartes Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Descartes Systems using Descartes Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Descartes using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Descartes Systems' stock price.

Descartes Systems Short Interest

An investor who is long Descartes Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Descartes Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge Descartes Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
98.0791
Short Percent
0.003
Short Ratio
1.82
Shares Short Prior Month
733.3 K
50 Day MA
86.2662

Descartes Systems Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Descartes Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Descartes. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Descartes can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Descartes Systems Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Descartes Systems Implied Volatility

    
  0.45  
Descartes Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Descartes Systems Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Descartes Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Descartes Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Descartes Systems' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Descartes Systems Group on the next trading day is expected to be 81.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.07.

Descartes Systems after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 81.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Descartes Systems to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Descartes contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Descartes Systems Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Descartes Systems trading at USD 81.87, that is roughly USD 0.023 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Descartes Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Descartes Systems Group options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Descartes Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Descartes Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Descartes Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Descartes Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Descartes Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Descartes Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Descartes Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Descartes. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Descartes Systems Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Descartes price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Descartes using various technical indicators. When you analyze Descartes charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Descartes Systems simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Descartes Systems Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Descartes Systems prices get older.

Descartes Systems Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Descartes Systems Group on the next trading day is expected to be 81.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 4.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Descartes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Descartes Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Descartes Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Descartes SystemsDescartes Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Descartes Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Descartes Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Descartes Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.31 and 84.43, respectively. We have considered Descartes Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
81.87
81.87
Expected Value
84.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Descartes Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Descartes Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.846
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2275
MADMean absolute deviation1.2845
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors77.07
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Descartes Systems Group forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Descartes Systems observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Descartes Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Descartes Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
79.3381.8784.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.8661.4090.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
82.6287.1291.62
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
101.08111.08123.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Descartes Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Descartes Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Descartes Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Descartes Systems.

Descartes Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Descartes Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Descartes Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Descartes Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Descartes Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Descartes Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Descartes Systems' historical news coverage. Descartes Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 79.33 and 84.41, respectively. We have considered Descartes Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
81.87
81.87
After-hype Price
84.41
Upside
Descartes Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Descartes Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.

Descartes Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Descartes Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Descartes Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Descartes Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
2.56
  0.02 
  0.17 
11 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
81.87
81.87
0.00 
2,560  
Notes

Descartes Systems Hype Timeline

Descartes Systems is currently traded for 81.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Descartes is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Descartes Systems is about 356.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 82.04. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Descartes Systems was currently reported as 18.05. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.57. Descartes Systems had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Descartes Systems to cross-verify your projections.

Descartes Systems Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Descartes Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Descartes Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Descartes Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Descartes Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PCTYPaylocity Holdng 3.17 12 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.51 (3.07) 9.24 
APPFAppfolio 0.17 15 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.09 (3.72) 12.22 
NICENice Ltd ADR 0.94 11 per month 0.00 (0.11) 3.22 (3.81) 18.80 
LYFTLYFT Inc(0.27)7 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.73 (6.70) 14.46 
SRADSportradar Group AG(0.20)8 per month 0.00 (0.29) 2.56 (4.19) 11.69 
SOUNSoundHound AI 0.85 9 per month 0.00 (0.22) 6.32 (7.38) 16.04 
CVLTCommVault Systems 1.14 9 per month 0.00 (0.21) 2.49 (3.87) 18.93 
MTCHMatch Group 0.09 9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.28 (1.84) 7.35 
PEGAPegasystems 2.54 10 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.59 (4.07) 21.07 
IDCCInterDigital(1.24)10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.53 (4.57) 17.55 

Other Forecasting Options for Descartes Systems

For every potential investor in Descartes, whether a beginner or expert, Descartes Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Descartes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Descartes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Descartes Systems' price trends.

Descartes Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Descartes Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Descartes Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Descartes Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Descartes Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Descartes Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Descartes Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Descartes Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Descartes Systems Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Descartes Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Descartes Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Descartes Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting descartes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Descartes Systems

The number of cover stories for Descartes Systems depends on current market conditions and Descartes Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Descartes Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Descartes Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Descartes Systems Short Properties

Descartes Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Descartes Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Descartes Systems Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Descartes Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Descartes Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding87.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments236.1 M

Additional Tools for Descartes Stock Analysis

When running Descartes Systems' price analysis, check to measure Descartes Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Descartes Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Descartes Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Descartes Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Descartes Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Descartes Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.