Desenio Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DSNO Stock | SEK 0.06 0 6.63% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Desenio Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.20. Desenio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Desenio Group's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Desenio Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Desenio Group AB from the perspective of Desenio Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Desenio Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.20. Desenio Group after-hype prediction price | SEK 0.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Desenio |
Desenio Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Desenio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Desenio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Desenio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Desenio Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Desenio Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000028, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Desenio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Desenio Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Desenio Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Desenio Group | Desenio Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Desenio Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Desenio Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Desenio Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0006 and 5.45, respectively. We have considered Desenio Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Desenio Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Desenio Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.6173 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 9.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0033 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.044 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.2008 |
Predictive Modules for Desenio Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Desenio Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Desenio Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Desenio Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Desenio Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Desenio Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Desenio Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Desenio Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Desenio Group's historical news coverage. Desenio Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 5.44, respectively. We have considered Desenio Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Desenio Group is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Desenio Group AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Desenio Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Desenio Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Desenio Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Desenio Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 5.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.06 | 0.06 | 7.41 |
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Desenio Group Hype Timeline
Desenio Group AB is currently traded for 0.06on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Desenio is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -7.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Desenio Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.06. About 38.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Desenio Group AB had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Desenio Group to cross-verify your projections.Desenio Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Desenio Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Desenio Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Desenio Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Desenio Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBROOM | New Bubbleroom Sweden | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.98 | 0.01 | 4.55 | (3.77) | 15.98 | |
| BUY | Sweden BuyersClub AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.43 | 0.15 | 6.67 | (4.85) | 18.59 | |
| USWE | USWE Sports AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.57 | (5.41) | 14.24 | |
| REFINE | Refine Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.37 | (0.01) | 16.67 | (14.29) | 47.73 | |
| CLEMO | Clean Motion AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.33 | (7.69) | 33.33 | |
| NILS | Nilsson Special Vehicles | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.83 | (6.16) | 25.38 | |
| BONG | Bong AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.0009 | 4.69 | (3.08) | 19.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Desenio Group
For every potential investor in Desenio, whether a beginner or expert, Desenio Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Desenio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Desenio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Desenio Group's price trends.Desenio Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Desenio Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Desenio Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Desenio Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Desenio Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Desenio Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Desenio Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Desenio Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Desenio Group AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10099.42 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.10) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0669 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0662 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0) |
Desenio Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Desenio Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Desenio Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting desenio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.26 | |||
| Variance | 39.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Desenio Group
The number of cover stories for Desenio Group depends on current market conditions and Desenio Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Desenio Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Desenio Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Desenio Group Short Properties
Desenio Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Desenio Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Desenio Group AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Desenio Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Desenio Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 162.2 M |
Additional Tools for Desenio Stock Analysis
When running Desenio Group's price analysis, check to measure Desenio Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Desenio Group is operating at the current time. Most of Desenio Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Desenio Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Desenio Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Desenio Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.