Deswell Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| DSWL Stock | USD 3.35 0.06 1.82% |
Deswell Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Deswell Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Deswell Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Deswell Industries fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Deswell Industries' share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Deswell Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.193 | Wall Street Target Price 7.75 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
Using Deswell Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Deswell Industries from the perspective of Deswell Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deswell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 3.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.33. Deswell Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 3.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deswell Industries to cross-verify your projections. Deswell Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Deswell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Deswell using various technical indicators. When you analyze Deswell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Deswell Industries Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Deswell Industries' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1995-06-30 | Previous Quarter 28.1 M | Current Value 23.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 8.8 M |
Deswell Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deswell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 3.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deswell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deswell Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Deswell Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Deswell Industries | Deswell Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Deswell Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Deswell Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deswell Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 6.29, respectively. We have considered Deswell Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deswell Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deswell Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7513 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0874 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0255 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.3319 |
Predictive Modules for Deswell Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deswell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deswell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Deswell Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Deswell Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Deswell Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Deswell Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Deswell Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Deswell Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Deswell Industries' historical news coverage. Deswell Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 6.47, respectively. We have considered Deswell Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Deswell Industries is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Deswell Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Deswell Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Deswell Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Deswell Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Deswell Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 35 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.35 | 3.35 | 0.00 |
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Deswell Industries Hype Timeline
Deswell Industries is currently traded for 3.35. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Deswell is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Deswell Industries is about 6500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.35. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.49. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Deswell Industries last dividend was issued on the 3rd of July 2025. The entity had 3:2 split on the 30th of March 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 35 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deswell Industries to cross-verify your projections.Deswell Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Deswell Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Deswell Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Deswell Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Deswell Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HOLO | MicroCloud Hologram | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.57 | (7.62) | 15.30 | |
| ODYS | Odysightai Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.61 | 0.15 | 14.13 | (6.42) | 25.92 | |
| CPSH | Cps Technologies | (0.18) | 9 per month | 3.90 | 0.16 | 12.89 | (7.34) | 25.47 | |
| NEON | Neonode | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.95 | (5.26) | 18.94 | |
| WBX | Wallbox NV | 0.10 | 29 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 6.60 | (6.84) | 18.65 | |
| JFU | 9F Inc | (0.47) | 30 per month | 6.33 | 0.05 | 11.26 | (12.68) | 48.78 | |
| SLNH | Soluna Holdings | (0.27) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 16.25 | (13.18) | 41.38 | |
| GMM | Global Mofy Metaverse | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.58 | (7.32) | 23.02 | |
| NOTE | FiscalNote Holdings | 0.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 6.92 | (8.31) | 16.50 | |
| REFR | Research Frontiers Incorporated | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.83 | (8.43) | 36.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Deswell Industries
For every potential investor in Deswell, whether a beginner or expert, Deswell Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deswell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deswell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deswell Industries' price trends.Deswell Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deswell Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deswell Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deswell Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Deswell Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deswell Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deswell Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deswell Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deswell Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Deswell Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Deswell Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deswell Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deswell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Variance | 10.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Deswell Industries
The number of cover stories for Deswell Industries depends on current market conditions and Deswell Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Deswell Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Deswell Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Deswell Industries Short Properties
Deswell Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Deswell Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Deswell Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Deswell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Deswell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 75.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deswell Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Deswell Stock please use our How to buy in Deswell Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deswell Industries. Projected growth potential of Deswell fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Deswell Industries assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.193 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 0.7 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.025 |
Investors evaluate Deswell Industries using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Deswell Industries' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Deswell Industries' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Deswell Industries' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Deswell Industries should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Deswell Industries' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.