Dufry AG Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Regression
| DUFRY Stock | USD 6.09 0.06 1.00% |
Dufry Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Dufry AG's pink sheet price is slightly above 60 suggesting that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dufry, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Dufry AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dufry AG ADR from the perspective of Dufry AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Dufry AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.23. Dufry AG after-hype prediction price | USD 6.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Dufry |
Dufry AG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dufry price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dufry using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dufry charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dufry AG Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Dufry AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dufry Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dufry AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dufry AG Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dufry AG | Dufry AG Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dufry AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dufry AG's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dufry AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.65 and 7.66, respectively. We have considered Dufry AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dufry AG pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dufry AG pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0751 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.2325 |
Predictive Modules for Dufry AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dufry AG ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dufry AG After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dufry AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dufry AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Dufry AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dufry AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dufry AG's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dufry AG's historical news coverage. Dufry AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.58 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Dufry AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dufry AG is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dufry AG ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dufry AG Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dufry AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dufry AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dufry AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.09 | 6.09 | 0.00 |
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Dufry AG Hype Timeline
Dufry AG ADR is currently traded for 6.09. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Dufry is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dufry AG is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.09. The book value of the company was currently reported as 0.98. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.92. Dufry AG ADR last dividend was issued on the 14th of May 2019. The entity had 1381:1359 split on the 12th of June 2015. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dufry AG to cross-verify your projections.Dufry AG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dufry AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dufry AG's future price movements. Getting to know how Dufry AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dufry AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SRTTY | ZOZO Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.86 | (0) | 8.70 | (9.07) | 22.23 | |
| DLVHF | Delivery Hero SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | 0.06 | 7.44 | (4.78) | 17.16 | |
| ZLDSF | Zalando SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.23 | |
| ZLNDY | ZALANDO SE ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.07 | (3.57) | 11.88 | |
| MONOF | Monotaro Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| MONOY | Monotaro Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.26 | 0.05 | 3.98 | (4.05) | 14.17 | |
| ELPQF | El Puerto De | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.64 | |
| DELHY | Delivery Hero SE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.24 | 0.07 | 7.55 | (5.68) | 24.48 | |
| CDNTF | Canadian Tire | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.38 | |
| CDNAF | Canadian Tire | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.01 | 2.92 | (2.04) | 29.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dufry AG
For every potential investor in Dufry, whether a beginner or expert, Dufry AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dufry Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dufry. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dufry AG's price trends.Dufry AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dufry AG pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dufry AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dufry AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dufry AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dufry AG pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dufry AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dufry AG pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Dufry AG ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Dufry AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dufry AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dufry AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dufry pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dufry AG
The number of cover stories for Dufry AG depends on current market conditions and Dufry AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dufry AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dufry AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dufry AG Short Properties
Dufry AG's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dufry AG's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dufry AG ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dufry AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dufry AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 877.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 793.5 M |
Additional Tools for Dufry Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Dufry AG's price analysis, check to measure Dufry AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dufry AG is operating at the current time. Most of Dufry AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dufry AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dufry AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dufry AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.