Duta Pertiwi Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

DUTI Stock  IDR 4,350  20.00  0.46%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Duta Pertiwi Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 4,272 with a mean absolute deviation of 80.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,894. Duta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Duta Pertiwi polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Duta Pertiwi Tbk as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Duta Pertiwi Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Duta Pertiwi Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 4,272 with a mean absolute deviation of 80.22, mean absolute percentage error of 13,740, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,894.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duta Pertiwi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Duta Pertiwi Stock Forecast Pattern

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Duta Pertiwi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Duta Pertiwi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duta Pertiwi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4,270 and 4,274, respectively. We have considered Duta Pertiwi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4,350
4,272
Expected Value
4,274
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duta Pertiwi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duta Pertiwi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria127.6386
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation80.2245
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors4893.6927
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Duta Pertiwi historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Duta Pertiwi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duta Pertiwi Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4,3484,3504,352
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3,5953,5974,785
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
4,3004,4084,515
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Duta Pertiwi

For every potential investor in Duta, whether a beginner or expert, Duta Pertiwi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duta Pertiwi's price trends.

Duta Pertiwi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duta Pertiwi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duta Pertiwi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duta Pertiwi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Duta Pertiwi Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duta Pertiwi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duta Pertiwi's current price.

Duta Pertiwi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duta Pertiwi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duta Pertiwi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duta Pertiwi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duta Pertiwi Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Duta Pertiwi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Duta Pertiwi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duta Pertiwi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Duta Stock

Duta Pertiwi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Duta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Duta with respect to the benefits of owning Duta Pertiwi security.