DEVRY EDUCATION Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DVY Stock | EUR 86.50 1.00 1.14% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DEVRY EDUCATION GRP on the next trading day is expected to be 86.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.20. DEVRY Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
DEVRY |
DEVRY EDUCATION Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DEVRY EDUCATION GRP on the next trading day is expected to be 86.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 3.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DEVRY Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DEVRY EDUCATION's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DEVRY EDUCATION Stock Forecast Pattern
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DEVRY EDUCATION Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DEVRY EDUCATION's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DEVRY EDUCATION's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.96 and 89.24, respectively. We have considered DEVRY EDUCATION's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DEVRY EDUCATION stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DEVRY EDUCATION stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6043 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4036 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.22 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 73.2019 |
Predictive Modules for DEVRY EDUCATION
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DEVRY EDUCATION GRP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for DEVRY EDUCATION
For every potential investor in DEVRY, whether a beginner or expert, DEVRY EDUCATION's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DEVRY Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DEVRY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DEVRY EDUCATION's price trends.DEVRY EDUCATION Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DEVRY EDUCATION stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DEVRY EDUCATION could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DEVRY EDUCATION by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DEVRY EDUCATION GRP Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DEVRY EDUCATION's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DEVRY EDUCATION's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
DEVRY EDUCATION Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DEVRY EDUCATION stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DEVRY EDUCATION shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DEVRY EDUCATION stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DEVRY EDUCATION GRP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DEVRY EDUCATION Risk Indicators
The analysis of DEVRY EDUCATION's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DEVRY EDUCATION's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting devry stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Variance | 6.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for DEVRY Stock Analysis
When running DEVRY EDUCATION's price analysis, check to measure DEVRY EDUCATION's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DEVRY EDUCATION is operating at the current time. Most of DEVRY EDUCATION's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DEVRY EDUCATION's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DEVRY EDUCATION's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DEVRY EDUCATION to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.