DexCom Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| DXCM Stock | USD 74.00 0.64 0.87% |
DexCom Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of DexCom's stock price is about 65 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling DexCom, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using DexCom hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DexCom Inc from the perspective of DexCom response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 73.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.31. DexCom after-hype prediction price | USD 74.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DexCom to cross-verify your projections. DexCom Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DexCom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DexCom using various technical indicators. When you analyze DexCom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
DexCom Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of DexCom Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 73.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.20, mean absolute percentage error of 2.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DexCom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DexCom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DexCom Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DexCom | DexCom Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
DexCom Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DexCom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DexCom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.76 and 75.75, respectively. We have considered DexCom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DexCom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DexCom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0118 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2018 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 73.3099 |
Predictive Modules for DexCom
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DexCom Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DexCom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
DexCom After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of DexCom at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DexCom or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DexCom, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
DexCom Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting DexCom's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DexCom's historical news coverage. DexCom's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.01 and 75.99, respectively. We have considered DexCom's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
DexCom is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DexCom Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
DexCom Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DexCom is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DexCom backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DexCom, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
74.00 | 74.00 | 0.00 |
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DexCom Hype Timeline
DexCom Inc is currently traded for 74.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.16. DexCom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on DexCom is about 506.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 73.84. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.03. DexCom Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 4:1 split on the 13th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DexCom to cross-verify your projections.DexCom Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to DexCom's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DexCom's future price movements. Getting to know how DexCom's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DexCom may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STE | STERIS plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.06 | 0.08 | 1.91 | (1.58) | 10.91 | |
| PODD | Insulet | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.24 | (3.62) | 13.53 | |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings | (3.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.92 | (2.20) | 18.45 | |
| PHG | Koninklijke Philips NV | 0.24 | 9 per month | 1.97 | (0.02) | 2.53 | (2.41) | 8.74 | |
| SNN | Smith Nephew SNATS | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.40 | (1.94) | 14.66 | |
| LH | Laboratory of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 2.71 | (1.98) | 5.89 | |
| WAT | Waters | (0.92) | 11 per month | 1.05 | 0.01 | 3.35 | (2.03) | 8.38 | |
| BIIB | Biogen Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.09 | 2.91 | (2.55) | 9.61 | |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.50 | (3.58) | 12.18 | |
| TEVA | Teva Pharma Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.36 | 0.26 | 3.59 | (1.61) | 23.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for DexCom
For every potential investor in DexCom, whether a beginner or expert, DexCom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DexCom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DexCom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DexCom's price trends.DexCom Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DexCom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DexCom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DexCom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DexCom Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DexCom stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DexCom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DexCom stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DexCom Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DexCom Risk Indicators
The analysis of DexCom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DexCom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dexcom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DexCom
The number of cover stories for DexCom depends on current market conditions and DexCom's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DexCom is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DexCom's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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DexCom Short Properties
DexCom's future price predictability will typically decrease when DexCom's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DexCom Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DexCom's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DexCom's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 412.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DexCom to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could DexCom diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DexCom. Projected growth potential of DexCom fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every DexCom data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding DexCom Inc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects DexCom's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what DexCom's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push DexCom's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between DexCom's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding DexCom should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, DexCom's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.