Erste Group Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| EBO Stock | EUR 108.60 1.50 1.36% |
Erste Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Erste Group's stock price is slightly above 66 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Erste, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Erste Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Erste Group Bank from the perspective of Erste Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Erste Group Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 108.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.56. Erste Group after-hype prediction price | EUR 108.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Erste |
Erste Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Erste price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Erste using various technical indicators. When you analyze Erste charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Erste Group Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Erste Group Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 108.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 2.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Erste Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Erste Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Erste Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Erste Group | Erste Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Erste Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Erste Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Erste Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.42 and 110.35, respectively. We have considered Erste Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Erste Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Erste Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2224 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0603 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.5555 |
Predictive Modules for Erste Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erste Group Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Erste Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Erste Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Erste Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Erste Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Erste Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Erste Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Erste Group's historical news coverage. Erste Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 107.07 and 109.99, respectively. We have considered Erste Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Erste Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Erste Group Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Erste Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Erste Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Erste Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Erste Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 1.46 | 0.07 | 0.73 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
108.60 | 108.53 | 0.06 |
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Erste Group Hype Timeline
Erste Group Bank is currently traded for 108.60on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.73. Erste is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 108.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Erste Group is about 70.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.87. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.67. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Erste Group Bank last dividend was issued on the May 19, 2019. The entity had 4:1 split on the 8th of July 2004. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Erste Group to cross-verify your projections.Erste Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Erste Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Erste Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Erste Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Erste Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHK | China Resources Beer | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.70 | (3.36) | 11.04 | |
| ROW | Texas Roadhouse | 4.85 | 7 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 3.37 | (2.26) | 7.38 | |
| SC3 | SCANSOURCE | (0.40) | 8 per month | 1.80 | 0 | 3.35 | (2.99) | 10.79 | |
| NY70 | MOLSON RS BEVERAGE | (27.90) | 1 per month | 2.25 | 0.02 | 6.44 | (4.50) | 23.68 | |
| 62XA | BROADSTNET LEADL 00025 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.07 | (2.00) | 7.28 | |
| NNR | Nishi Nippon Railroad Co | 1.40 | 1 per month | 0.92 | 0.1 | 2.19 | (1.91) | 13.48 | |
| A2P | COPLAND ROAD CAPITAL | 5.26 | 1 per month | 2.38 | 0.09 | 6.06 | (4.55) | 16.83 | |
| FV8 | Fevertree Drinks PLC | 0.1 | 4 per month | 2.75 | 0.02 | 3.87 | (2.69) | 19.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Erste Group
For every potential investor in Erste, whether a beginner or expert, Erste Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Erste Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Erste. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Erste Group's price trends.Erste Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Erste Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Erste Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Erste Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Erste Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Erste Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Erste Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Erste Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Erste Group Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 108.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 108.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.75) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.50) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.79 |
Erste Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Erste Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Erste Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting erste stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9867 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9736 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Erste Group
The number of cover stories for Erste Group depends on current market conditions and Erste Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Erste Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Erste Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Erste Group Short Properties
Erste Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Erste Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Erste Group Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Erste Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erste Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 388.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -1.2 B |
Additional Tools for Erste Stock Analysis
When running Erste Group's price analysis, check to measure Erste Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Erste Group is operating at the current time. Most of Erste Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Erste Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Erste Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Erste Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.