Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Emergent Biosolutions works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Emergent Biosolutions Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Emergent Biosolutions on the next trading day is expected to be 10.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.69.

Emergent Biosolutions Stock Forecast Pattern

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Emergent Biosolutions Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emergent Biosolutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emergent Biosolutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Emergent Biosolutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Emergent Biosolutions trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Emergent Biosolutions observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Emergent Biosolutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emergent Biosolutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 3.50 10.14 16.78 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.34 6.98 13.62 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 7.15 9.67 12.20 Details

2 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 5.46 6.00 6.66 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Emergent Biosolutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Emergent Biosolutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Emergent Biosolutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Emergent Biosolutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Emergent Biosolutions

For every potential investor in Emergent, whether a beginner or expert, Emergent Biosolutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emergent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emergent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emergent Biosolutions' price trends.

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Emergent Biosolutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emergent Biosolutions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emergent Biosolutions' current price.

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