Empire Bancshares Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EBSH Stock | USD 19.20 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 19.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23. Empire Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Empire Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Empire Bancshares' pink sheet price is under 65 suggesting that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors as of 22nd of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Empire, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Empire Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Empire Bancshares from the perspective of Empire Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 19.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23. Empire Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 19.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Empire |
Empire Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Empire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Empire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Empire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Empire Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Empire Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 19.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empire Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empire Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Empire Bancshares Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Empire Bancshares | Empire Bancshares Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Empire Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Empire Bancshares' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empire Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.85 and 19.30, respectively. We have considered Empire Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empire Bancshares pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empire Bancshares pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0669 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0365 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2295 |
Predictive Modules for Empire Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empire Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Empire Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Empire Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Empire Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Empire Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Empire Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Empire Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Empire Bancshares' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Empire Bancshares' historical news coverage. Empire Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.97 and 19.43, respectively. We have considered Empire Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Empire Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Empire Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Empire Bancshares Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Empire Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Empire Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Empire Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.20 | 19.20 | 0.00 |
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Empire Bancshares Hype Timeline
Empire Bancshares is currently traded for 19.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Empire is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Empire Bancshares is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.20. The company last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2023. Empire Bancshares had 2:1 split on the 18th of October 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.Empire Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Empire Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Empire Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Empire Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Empire Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIDS | FNB Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.08 | 4.66 | (3.75) | 12.29 | |
| CBFC | CNB Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 38.45 | |
| CAIB | California International Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 72.22 | |
| TCNB | Town Center Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | (0.12) | 1.33 | (0.83) | 4.47 | |
| HRBK | Harbor Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.60 | (5.00) | 19.98 | |
| ASCN | Absecon Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.02 | 1.02 | (1.01) | 17.41 | |
| TVLF | Tennessee Valley Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.74 | |
| CCYY | CCCB Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.11 | 3.13 | (2.08) | 21.33 | |
| MSBB | Mercer Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.97 | (0.31) | 2.60 | |
| GOVB | Gouverneur Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.28 | 0.18 | 3.52 | (0.87) | 10.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Empire Bancshares
For every potential investor in Empire, whether a beginner or expert, Empire Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empire Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empire Bancshares' price trends.Empire Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Empire Bancshares pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Empire Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Empire Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Empire Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empire Bancshares pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empire Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empire Bancshares pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Empire Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Empire Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Empire Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empire Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empire pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0484 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2252 | |||
| Variance | 0.0507 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Empire Bancshares
The number of cover stories for Empire Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Empire Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Empire Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Empire Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Empire Pink Sheet
Empire Bancshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether Empire Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Empire with respect to the benefits of owning Empire Bancshares security.