Electronic City Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

ECII Stock  IDR 248.00  2.00  0.81%   
Electronic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Electronic City's share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Electronic City, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Electronic City's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Electronic City Indonesia, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Electronic City hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Electronic City Indonesia from the perspective of Electronic City response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 247.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 420.04.

Electronic City after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 248.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electronic City to cross-verify your projections.

Electronic City Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Electronic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Electronic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Electronic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Electronic City simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Electronic City Indonesia are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Electronic City Indonesia prices get older.

Electronic City Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 247.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.00, mean absolute percentage error of 167.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 420.04.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electronic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electronic City's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Electronic City Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Electronic City  Electronic City Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Electronic City Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Electronic City's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electronic City's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 241.85 and 254.13, respectively. We have considered Electronic City's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
248.00
241.85
Downside
247.99
Expected Value
254.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electronic City stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electronic City stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3955
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.1893
MADMean absolute deviation7.0007
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0311
SAESum of the absolute errors420.0448
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Electronic City Indonesia forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Electronic City observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Electronic City

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electronic City Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
241.86248.00254.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
191.05197.19272.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-92.26243.00276.53
Details

Electronic City After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Electronic City at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Electronic City or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Electronic City, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Electronic City Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Electronic City's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Electronic City's historical news coverage. Electronic City's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 241.86 and 254.14, respectively. We have considered Electronic City's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
248.00
241.86
Downside
248.00
After-hype Price
254.14
Upside
Electronic City is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Electronic City Indonesia is based on 3 months time horizon.

Electronic City Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Electronic City is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Electronic City backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Electronic City, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.63 
6.14
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
248.00
248.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Electronic City Hype Timeline

Electronic City Indonesia is currently traded for 248.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Electronic is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.63%. %. The volatility of related hype on Electronic City is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 248.00. About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.41. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Electronic City Indonesia recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of July 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electronic City to cross-verify your projections.

Electronic City Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Electronic City's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Electronic City's future price movements. Getting to know how Electronic City's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Electronic City may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Electronic City

For every potential investor in Electronic, whether a beginner or expert, Electronic City's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electronic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electronic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electronic City's price trends.

Electronic City Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electronic City stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electronic City could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electronic City by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Electronic City Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electronic City stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electronic City shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electronic City stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electronic City Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Electronic City Risk Indicators

The analysis of Electronic City's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electronic City's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electronic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Electronic City

The number of cover stories for Electronic City depends on current market conditions and Electronic City's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Electronic City is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Electronic City's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Electronic City Short Properties

Electronic City's future price predictability will typically decrease when Electronic City's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Electronic City Indonesia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Electronic City's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Electronic City's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.2 B
Cash And Short Term Investments743.1 B

Other Information on Investing in Electronic Stock

Electronic City financial ratios help investors to determine whether Electronic Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Electronic with respect to the benefits of owning Electronic City security.