Electronic City Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ECII Stock | IDR 248.00 2.00 0.81% |
Electronic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Electronic City's share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Electronic City, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Electronic City hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Electronic City Indonesia from the perspective of Electronic City response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 247.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 420.04. Electronic City after-hype prediction price | IDR 248.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Electronic |
Electronic City Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Electronic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Electronic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Electronic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Electronic City Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electronic City Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 247.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.00, mean absolute percentage error of 167.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 420.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electronic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electronic City's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Electronic City Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Electronic City | Electronic City Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Electronic City Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Electronic City's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electronic City's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 241.85 and 254.13, respectively. We have considered Electronic City's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electronic City stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electronic City stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.3955 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1893 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.0007 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0311 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 420.0448 |
Predictive Modules for Electronic City
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electronic City Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Electronic City After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Electronic City at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Electronic City or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Electronic City, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Electronic City Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Electronic City's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Electronic City's historical news coverage. Electronic City's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 241.86 and 254.14, respectively. We have considered Electronic City's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Electronic City is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Electronic City Indonesia is based on 3 months time horizon.
Electronic City Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Electronic City is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Electronic City backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Electronic City, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 6.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
248.00 | 248.00 | 0.00 |
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Electronic City Hype Timeline
Electronic City Indonesia is currently traded for 248.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Electronic is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.63%. %. The volatility of related hype on Electronic City is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 248.00. About 53.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.41. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Electronic City Indonesia recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of July 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electronic City to cross-verify your projections.Electronic City Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Electronic City's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Electronic City's future price movements. Getting to know how Electronic City's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Electronic City may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOGA | Bintang Oto Global | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.94 | 0.22 | 24.74 | (3.95) | 39.52 | |
| INDR | Indorama Synthetics Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | 0.03 | 4.55 | (4.14) | 33.78 | |
| KMTR | Kirana Megatara Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.72 | 0.04 | 2.19 | (1.44) | 5.78 | |
| MLPL | Multipolar Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.04 | (5.73) | 25.73 | |
| DEPO | Caturkarda Depo Bangunan | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.83 | 0.01 | 3.62 | (6.92) | 39.38 | |
| SPTO | PT Surya Pertiwi | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.79 | (1.52) | 2.34 | |
| MSJA | Multi Spunindo Jaya | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.95 | 0.13 | 8.39 | (6.18) | 19.98 | |
| SONA | Sona Topas Tourism | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.14 | (4.00) | 23.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Electronic City
For every potential investor in Electronic, whether a beginner or expert, Electronic City's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electronic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electronic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electronic City's price trends.Electronic City Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electronic City stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electronic City could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electronic City by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Electronic City Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electronic City stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electronic City shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electronic City stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electronic City Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 182677.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0625 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 250.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 249.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.0 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.25 |
Electronic City Risk Indicators
The analysis of Electronic City's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electronic City's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electronic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.01 | |||
| Variance | 36.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Electronic City
The number of cover stories for Electronic City depends on current market conditions and Electronic City's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Electronic City is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Electronic City's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Electronic City Short Properties
Electronic City's future price predictability will typically decrease when Electronic City's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Electronic City Indonesia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Electronic City's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Electronic City's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 743.1 B |
Other Information on Investing in Electronic Stock
Electronic City financial ratios help investors to determine whether Electronic Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Electronic with respect to the benefits of owning Electronic City security.