Electrocore LLC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ECOR Stock | USD 7.47 0.43 6.11% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electrocore LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.17. Electrocore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Electrocore LLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Electrocore LLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Electrocore LLC fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Electrocore LLC's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.31) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.73) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.84) | Wall Street Target Price 21.136 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.40) |
Using Electrocore LLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Electrocore LLC from the perspective of Electrocore LLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electrocore LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.17. Electrocore LLC after-hype prediction price | USD 7.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Electrocore | Build AI portfolio with Electrocore Stock |
Electrocore LLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Electrocore price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Electrocore using various technical indicators. When you analyze Electrocore charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Electrocore LLC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Electrocore LLC on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Electrocore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Electrocore LLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Electrocore LLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Electrocore LLC | Electrocore LLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Electrocore LLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Electrocore LLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Electrocore LLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.25 and 12.69, respectively. We have considered Electrocore LLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Electrocore LLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Electrocore LLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5777 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0421 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1995 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0359 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.17 |
Predictive Modules for Electrocore LLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Electrocore LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Electrocore LLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Electrocore LLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Electrocore LLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Electrocore LLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Electrocore LLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Electrocore LLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Electrocore LLC's historical news coverage. Electrocore LLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.03 and 12.47, respectively. We have considered Electrocore LLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Electrocore LLC is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Electrocore LLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Electrocore LLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Electrocore LLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Electrocore LLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Electrocore LLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.82 | 5.22 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.47 | 7.25 | 2.95 |
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Electrocore LLC Hype Timeline
Electrocore LLC is currently traded for 7.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Electrocore is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.95%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.82%. The volatility of related hype on Electrocore LLC is about 12731.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.50. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.71. Electrocore LLC had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:15 split on the 15th of February 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Electrocore LLC to cross-verify your projections.Electrocore LLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Electrocore LLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Electrocore LLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Electrocore LLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Electrocore LLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NMTC | Neuroone Medical Technologies | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.83 | 0.02 | 9.59 | (6.85) | 23.46 | |
| YI | 111 Inc | 0.03 | 8 per month | 4.10 | 0.05 | 8.07 | (8.04) | 47.07 | |
| MYO | Myomo Inc | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.79 | (6.67) | 21.89 | |
| HYPD | Hyperion DeFi | 0.66 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 13.48 | (11.86) | 34.90 | |
| RNXT | RenovoRx | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.90 | (6.54) | 32.58 | |
| ZYXI | Zynex Inc | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 29.17 | (31.58) | 163.35 | |
| MAIA | MAIA Biotechnology | (0.06) | 10 per month | 5.63 | 0.16 | 11.32 | (8.28) | 35.91 | |
| RBOT | Vicarious Surgical | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.90 | (9.09) | 36.01 | |
| BTAI | BioXcel Therapeutics | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.90 | (7.32) | 21.49 | |
| PYPD | PolyPid | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.23 | 4.79 | (2.58) | 13.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Electrocore LLC
For every potential investor in Electrocore, whether a beginner or expert, Electrocore LLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Electrocore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Electrocore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Electrocore LLC's price trends.Electrocore LLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Electrocore LLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Electrocore LLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Electrocore LLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Electrocore LLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Electrocore LLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Electrocore LLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Electrocore LLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Electrocore LLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9092.74 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5443 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.06 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.53 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.43 |
Electrocore LLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Electrocore LLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Electrocore LLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting electrocore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.05 | |||
| Variance | 25.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.91 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Electrocore LLC
The number of cover stories for Electrocore LLC depends on current market conditions and Electrocore LLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Electrocore LLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Electrocore LLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Electrocore LLC Short Properties
Electrocore LLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Electrocore LLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Electrocore LLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Electrocore LLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Electrocore LLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12 M |
Additional Tools for Electrocore Stock Analysis
When running Electrocore LLC's price analysis, check to measure Electrocore LLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Electrocore LLC is operating at the current time. Most of Electrocore LLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Electrocore LLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Electrocore LLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Electrocore LLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.