Endeavour Mining Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EDV Stock | CAD 80.41 2.17 2.77% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Endeavour Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 80.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.06. Endeavour Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Endeavour Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Endeavour Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Endeavour Mining fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Endeavour Mining's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.07 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.579 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.5362 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.3018 | Wall Street Target Price 81.3167 |
Using Endeavour Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Endeavour Mining Corp from the perspective of Endeavour Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Endeavour Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 80.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.06. Endeavour Mining after-hype prediction price | CAD 80.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Endeavour |
Endeavour Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Endeavour price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Endeavour using various technical indicators. When you analyze Endeavour charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Endeavour Mining Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Endeavour Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 80.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.33, mean absolute percentage error of 3.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Endeavour Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Endeavour Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Endeavour Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
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Endeavour Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Endeavour Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Endeavour Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.81 and 82.92, respectively. We have considered Endeavour Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Endeavour Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Endeavour Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2143 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.455 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.0556 |
Predictive Modules for Endeavour Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Endeavour Mining Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Endeavour Mining After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Endeavour Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Endeavour Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Endeavour Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Endeavour Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Endeavour Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Endeavour Mining's historical news coverage. Endeavour Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 77.96 and 83.06, respectively. We have considered Endeavour Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Endeavour Mining is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Endeavour Mining Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Endeavour Mining Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Endeavour Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Endeavour Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Endeavour Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 2.55 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
80.41 | 80.51 | 0.12 |
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Endeavour Mining Hype Timeline
Endeavour Mining Corp is currently traded for 80.41on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Endeavour is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 80.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Endeavour Mining is about 1080.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 80.27. The company reported the revenue of 2.68 B. Net Income was 113.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.48 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Endeavour Mining to cross-verify your projections.Endeavour Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Endeavour Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Endeavour Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Endeavour Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Endeavour Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EQX | Equinox Gold Corp | 0.17 | 9 per month | 2.92 | 0.1 | 6.11 | (4.99) | 12.98 | |
| IMG | IAMGold | 0.03 | 3 per month | 2.78 | 0.15 | 5.59 | (4.60) | 14.96 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 0.17 | 3 per month | 2.73 | 0.07 | 4.79 | (3.76) | 11.97 | |
| NGD | New Gold | 0.04 | 10 per month | 2.92 | 0.20 | 7.68 | (3.86) | 20.09 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.31 | 0.08 | 4.09 | (3.73) | 9.39 | |
| SSRM | SSR Mining | (3.64) | 6 per month | 3.49 | 0.01 | 4.63 | (5.33) | 12.93 | |
| BTO | B2Gold Corp | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.60 | (5.99) | 12.91 | |
| ELD | Eldorado Gold Corp | 2.29 | 8 per month | 2.16 | 0.22 | 4.82 | (3.01) | 11.64 | |
| OGC | OceanaGold | 0.03 | 1 per month | 2.79 | 0.17 | 4.57 | (3.92) | 11.33 | |
| ARTG | Artemis Gold | (1.57) | 4 per month | 2.60 | 0.07 | 6.14 | (5.33) | 12.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Endeavour Mining
For every potential investor in Endeavour, whether a beginner or expert, Endeavour Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Endeavour Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Endeavour. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Endeavour Mining's price trends.Endeavour Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Endeavour Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Endeavour Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Endeavour Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Endeavour Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Endeavour Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Endeavour Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Endeavour Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Endeavour Mining Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17632.47 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6236 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 79.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 79.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.44 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.17 |
Endeavour Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Endeavour Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Endeavour Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting endeavour stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.07 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Endeavour Mining
The number of cover stories for Endeavour Mining depends on current market conditions and Endeavour Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Endeavour Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Endeavour Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Endeavour Mining Short Properties
Endeavour Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Endeavour Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Endeavour Mining Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Endeavour Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Endeavour Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 418.6 M |
Other Information on Investing in Endeavour Stock
Endeavour Mining financial ratios help investors to determine whether Endeavour Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Endeavour with respect to the benefits of owning Endeavour Mining security.