Ellington Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EFC-PE Stock | 25.58 0.03 0.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellington Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 25.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.38. Ellington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ellington Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Ellington Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ellington Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ellington |
Ellington Financial Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ellington Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 230.5 M | Current Value 180.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 43.2 M |
Ellington Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ellington Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 25.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ellington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ellington Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ellington Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ellington Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ellington Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ellington Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.34 and 25.79, respectively. We have considered Ellington Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ellington Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ellington Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1436 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0384 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.3793 |
Predictive Modules for Ellington Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ellington Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ellington Financial
For every potential investor in Ellington, whether a beginner or expert, Ellington Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ellington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ellington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ellington Financial's price trends.Ellington Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ellington Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ellington Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ellington Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ellington Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ellington Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ellington Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ellington Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ellington Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ellington Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ellington Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ellington Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 35.12 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
Ellington Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ellington Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ellington Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ellington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1532 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0894 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2211 | |||
| Variance | 0.0489 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0727 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.008 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Ellington Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ellington Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ellington Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ellington Financial Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ellington Financial to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ellington Stock refer to our How to Trade Ellington Stock guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.