Elcom Technology Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ELC Stock   24,800  350.00  1.39%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Elcom Technology Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 25,738 with a mean absolute deviation of 483.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29,487. Elcom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Elcom Technology polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Elcom Technology Communications as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Elcom Technology Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Elcom Technology Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 25,738 with a mean absolute deviation of 483.39, mean absolute percentage error of 380,056, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29,487.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elcom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elcom Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Elcom Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Elcom TechnologyElcom Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Elcom Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Elcom Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elcom Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25,737 and 25,739, respectively. We have considered Elcom Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24,800
25,737
Downside
25,738
Expected Value
25,739
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elcom Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elcom Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.9586
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation483.3909
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors29486.845
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Elcom Technology historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Elcom Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elcom Technology Com. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24,79924,80024,801
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21,44521,44627,280
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24,58724,91725,247
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Elcom Technology

For every potential investor in Elcom, whether a beginner or expert, Elcom Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elcom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elcom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elcom Technology's price trends.

Elcom Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elcom Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elcom Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elcom Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Elcom Technology Com Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elcom Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elcom Technology's current price.

Elcom Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elcom Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elcom Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elcom Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elcom Technology Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Elcom Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Elcom Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elcom Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elcom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Elcom Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Elcom Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Elcom Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Elcom Stock

  0.66AAA An Phat PlasticPairCorr
  0.66AME Alphanam MEPairCorr
  0.58ADS Damsan JSCPairCorr
  0.48ABS Binhthuan AgriculturePairCorr
  0.46APG APG Securities JointPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Elcom Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Elcom Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Elcom Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Elcom Technology Communications to buy it.
The correlation of Elcom Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Elcom Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Elcom Technology Com moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Elcom Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Elcom Stock

Elcom Technology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elcom Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elcom with respect to the benefits of owning Elcom Technology security.