Elfun Diversified Mutual Fund Forward View
| ELDFX Fund | USD 22.43 0.06 0.27% |
Elfun Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Elfun Diversified's mutual fund price is slightly above 66 suggesting that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Elfun, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Elfun Diversified hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elfun Diversified Fund from the perspective of Elfun Diversified response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elfun Diversified Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.39. Elfun Diversified after-hype prediction price | USD 22.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Elfun |
Elfun Diversified Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elfun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elfun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elfun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elfun Diversified Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elfun Diversified Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 22.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elfun Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elfun Diversified's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elfun Diversified Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elfun Diversified | Elfun Diversified Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Elfun Diversified Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elfun Diversified's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elfun Diversified's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.58 and 23.18, respectively. We have considered Elfun Diversified's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elfun Diversified mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elfun Diversified mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.976 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1838 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.3943 |
Predictive Modules for Elfun Diversified
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elfun Diversified. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elfun Diversified After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elfun Diversified at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elfun Diversified or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Elfun Diversified, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elfun Diversified Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elfun Diversified's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elfun Diversified's historical news coverage. Elfun Diversified's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.64 and 23.24, respectively. We have considered Elfun Diversified's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elfun Diversified is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elfun Diversified is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elfun Diversified Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Elfun Diversified is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elfun Diversified backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elfun Diversified, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 0.80 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.43 | 22.44 | 0.04 |
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Elfun Diversified Hype Timeline
Elfun Diversified is currently traded for 22.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Elfun is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.44 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Elfun Diversified is about 2571.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.43. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elfun Diversified to cross-verify your projections.Elfun Diversified Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elfun Diversified's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elfun Diversified's future price movements. Getting to know how Elfun Diversified's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elfun Diversified may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELMXX | Elfun Government Money | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EINFX | Elfun Income Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.17 | (0.28) | 0.21 | (0.31) | 0.72 | |
| ELDFX | Elfun Diversified Fund | 0.06 | 2 per month | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.82 | (0.77) | 6.39 | |
| ELFTX | Elfun Tax Exempt | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.20 | (0.10) | 0.71 | |
| ELFNX | Elfun Trusts Elfun | 0.19 | 1 per month | 0.76 | 0.06 | 1.25 | (1.52) | 11.60 | |
| MNDVUX | Mndvux | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.08 | 1.38 | (0.87) | 4.98 | |
| NWWAX | Nationwide Bailard Emerging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SMGASX | Adt 2047 Bahl | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PWJQX | Prudential Jennison International | 0.03 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.58 | (2.13) | 4.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elfun Diversified
For every potential investor in Elfun, whether a beginner or expert, Elfun Diversified's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elfun Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elfun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elfun Diversified's price trends.Elfun Diversified Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elfun Diversified mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elfun Diversified could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elfun Diversified by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elfun Diversified Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elfun Diversified mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elfun Diversified shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elfun Diversified mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Elfun Diversified Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.16 |
Elfun Diversified Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elfun Diversified's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elfun Diversified's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elfun mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4287 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.297 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7776 | |||
| Variance | 0.6046 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3007 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0882 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elfun Diversified
The number of cover stories for Elfun Diversified depends on current market conditions and Elfun Diversified's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elfun Diversified is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elfun Diversified's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Elfun Mutual Fund
Elfun Diversified financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elfun Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elfun with respect to the benefits of owning Elfun Diversified security.
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