EMS CHEMIE Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| EMSN Stock | CHF 630.00 5.00 0.80% |
EMS Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of EMS CHEMIE's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling EMS CHEMIE, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.024 | EPS Estimate Current Year 20.8409 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.0122 | Wall Street Target Price 625.7143 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
Using EMS CHEMIE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EMS CHEMIE HOLDING AG from the perspective of EMS CHEMIE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of EMS CHEMIE HOLDING AG on the next trading day is expected to be 627.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 517.96. EMS CHEMIE after-hype prediction price | CHF 630.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
EMS |
EMS CHEMIE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine EMS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EMS using various technical indicators. When you analyze EMS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EMS CHEMIE Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of EMS CHEMIE HOLDING AG on the next trading day is expected to be 627.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.35, mean absolute percentage error of 114.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 517.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EMS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EMS CHEMIE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EMS CHEMIE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EMS CHEMIE | EMS CHEMIE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
EMS CHEMIE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EMS CHEMIE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EMS CHEMIE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 626.01 and 628.93, respectively. We have considered EMS CHEMIE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EMS CHEMIE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EMS CHEMIE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.6925 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.3541 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 517.9566 |
Predictive Modules for EMS CHEMIE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EMS CHEMIE HOLDING. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EMS CHEMIE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of EMS CHEMIE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EMS CHEMIE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of EMS CHEMIE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
EMS CHEMIE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting EMS CHEMIE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EMS CHEMIE's historical news coverage. EMS CHEMIE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 629.29 and 632.21, respectively. We have considered EMS CHEMIE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
EMS CHEMIE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EMS CHEMIE HOLDING is based on 3 months time horizon.
EMS CHEMIE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EMS CHEMIE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EMS CHEMIE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EMS CHEMIE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.46 | 0.75 | 1.15 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
630.00 | 630.75 | 0.12 |
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EMS CHEMIE Hype Timeline
EMS CHEMIE HOLDING is currently traded for 630.00on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.75, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.15. EMS is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 630.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 48.67%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on EMS CHEMIE is about 31.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 631.15. The company reported the revenue of 1.95 B. Net Income was 466.13 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 622 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EMS CHEMIE to cross-verify your projections.EMS CHEMIE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to EMS CHEMIE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EMS CHEMIE's future price movements. Getting to know how EMS CHEMIE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EMS CHEMIE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLN | Clariant AG | 0.87 | 2 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 2.43 | (2.02) | 16.61 | |
| SIKA | Sika AG | 2.00 | 4 per month | 1.94 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.13) | 13.42 | |
| BANB | Bachem Holding AG | 0.45 | 2 per month | 1.42 | 0.15 | 3.69 | (2.42) | 10.56 | |
| DESN | Dottikon Es Holding | 8.50 | 2 per month | 1.29 | 0.06 | 2.68 | (2.13) | 13.19 | |
| GURN | Gurit Holding AG | 0.36 | 4 per month | 2.46 | 0.31 | 11.95 | (4.55) | 21.05 | |
| GIVN | Givaudan SA | 32.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.83 | (1.79) | 9.57 | |
| AMRZ | Amerize | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.53 | 0.12 | 4.33 | (2.79) | 14.93 | |
| CPHN | CPH Chemie und | (1.80) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.41 | (2.69) | 10.17 | |
| ZWM | Zwahlen et Mayr | (1.00) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | (1.28) | 42.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for EMS CHEMIE
For every potential investor in EMS, whether a beginner or expert, EMS CHEMIE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EMS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EMS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EMS CHEMIE's price trends.EMS CHEMIE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EMS CHEMIE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EMS CHEMIE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EMS CHEMIE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EMS CHEMIE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EMS CHEMIE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EMS CHEMIE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EMS CHEMIE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EMS CHEMIE HOLDING AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
EMS CHEMIE Risk Indicators
The analysis of EMS CHEMIE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EMS CHEMIE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ems stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9427 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7279 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.996 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5298 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EMS CHEMIE
The number of cover stories for EMS CHEMIE depends on current market conditions and EMS CHEMIE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that EMS CHEMIE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about EMS CHEMIE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for EMS Stock Analysis
When running EMS CHEMIE's price analysis, check to measure EMS CHEMIE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EMS CHEMIE is operating at the current time. Most of EMS CHEMIE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EMS CHEMIE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EMS CHEMIE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EMS CHEMIE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.