ProShares Decline Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| EMTY Etf | USD 11.36 0.09 0.80% |
ProShares Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of ProShares Decline's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ProShares Decline, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ProShares Decline hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ProShares Decline of from the perspective of ProShares Decline response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares Decline of on the next trading day is expected to be 11.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.76. ProShares Decline after-hype prediction price | USD 11.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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ProShares Decline Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ProShares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ProShares using various technical indicators. When you analyze ProShares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ProShares Decline Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ProShares Decline of on the next trading day is expected to be 11.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ProShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ProShares Decline's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ProShares Decline Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ProShares Decline | ProShares Decline Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ProShares Decline Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ProShares Decline's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ProShares Decline's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.23 and 12.50, respectively. We have considered ProShares Decline's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ProShares Decline etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ProShares Decline etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0153 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1146 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.7624 |
Predictive Modules for ProShares Decline
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ProShares Decline. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ProShares Decline's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ProShares Decline After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ProShares Decline at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ProShares Decline or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of ProShares Decline, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ProShares Decline Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ProShares Decline's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ProShares Decline's historical news coverage. ProShares Decline's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.24 and 12.48, respectively. We have considered ProShares Decline's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ProShares Decline is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ProShares Decline is based on 3 months time horizon.
ProShares Decline Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as ProShares Decline is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ProShares Decline backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ProShares Decline, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.36 | 11.36 | 0.00 |
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ProShares Decline Hype Timeline
ProShares Decline is currently traded for 11.36. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. ProShares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on ProShares Decline is about 55.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.32. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Decline to cross-verify your projections.ProShares Decline Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ProShares Decline's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ProShares Decline's future price movements. Getting to know how ProShares Decline's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ProShares Decline may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSCS | Direxion Daily CSCO | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.09 | (1.95) | 7.50 | |
| BIS | ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.83 | (4.79) | 10.57 | |
| MKTN | Federated Hermes ETF | (0.05) | 2 per month | 0.30 | (0.06) | 0.91 | (0.64) | 2.02 | |
| SPCY | STKd 100 percent | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 6.41 | (10.25) | 19.84 | |
| BULG | Leverage Shares 2X | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 9.04 | (11.79) | 24.74 | |
| ARVR | First Trust Indxx | (20.88) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.65 | (2.21) | 4.60 | |
| SCC | ProShares UltraShort Consumer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.52 | (3.81) | 9.77 | |
| QB | ProShares Nasdaq 100 Dynamic | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.18 | (0.17) | 0.64 | (0.52) | 1.83 | |
| ZSC | USCF ETF Trust | 0.55 | 2 per month | 0.60 | 0.14 | 1.65 | (1.03) | 5.80 | |
| CTWO | COtwo Advisors Physical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.14 | 2.85 | (1.60) | 9.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for ProShares Decline
For every potential investor in ProShares, whether a beginner or expert, ProShares Decline's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ProShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ProShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ProShares Decline's price trends.ProShares Decline Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ProShares Decline etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ProShares Decline could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ProShares Decline by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ProShares Decline Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ProShares Decline etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ProShares Decline shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ProShares Decline etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ProShares Decline of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ProShares Decline Risk Indicators
The analysis of ProShares Decline's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ProShares Decline's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting proshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8764 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ProShares Decline
The number of cover stories for ProShares Decline depends on current market conditions and ProShares Decline's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ProShares Decline is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ProShares Decline's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Decline to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
The market value of ProShares Decline is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ProShares that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ProShares Decline's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ProShares Decline's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ProShares Decline's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ProShares Decline's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ProShares Decline's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ProShares Decline is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ProShares Decline's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.