Esprinet SpA Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

EP4A Stock  EUR 4.08  0.10  2.39%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Esprinet SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.93. Esprinet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Esprinet SpA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Esprinet SpA is based on an artificially constructed time series of Esprinet SpA daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Esprinet SpA 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Esprinet SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Esprinet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Esprinet SpA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Esprinet SpA Stock Forecast Pattern

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Esprinet SpA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Esprinet SpA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Esprinet SpA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.06 and 6.49, respectively. We have considered Esprinet SpA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.08
4.28
Expected Value
6.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Esprinet SpA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Esprinet SpA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria100.8159
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1189
MADMean absolute deviation0.1874
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0406
SAESum of the absolute errors9.9325
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Esprinet SpA 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Esprinet SpA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esprinet SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.864.086.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.593.816.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Esprinet SpA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Esprinet SpA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Esprinet SpA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Esprinet SpA.

Other Forecasting Options for Esprinet SpA

For every potential investor in Esprinet, whether a beginner or expert, Esprinet SpA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Esprinet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Esprinet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Esprinet SpA's price trends.

Esprinet SpA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Esprinet SpA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Esprinet SpA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Esprinet SpA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Esprinet SpA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Esprinet SpA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Esprinet SpA's current price.

Esprinet SpA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Esprinet SpA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Esprinet SpA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Esprinet SpA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Esprinet SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Esprinet SpA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Esprinet SpA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Esprinet SpA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting esprinet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Esprinet Stock

Esprinet SpA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Esprinet Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Esprinet with respect to the benefits of owning Esprinet SpA security.