Engro Polymer Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| EPCL Stock | 33.16 0.66 2.03% |
Engro Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Engro Polymer stock prices and determine the direction of Engro Polymer Chemicals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Engro Polymer's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of today, The value of RSI of Engro Polymer's share price is at 57 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Engro Polymer, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Engro Polymer hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Engro Polymer Chemicals from the perspective of Engro Polymer response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Engro Polymer Chemicals on the next trading day is expected to be 33.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.22. Engro Polymer after-hype prediction price | PKR 33.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Engro |
Engro Polymer Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Engro price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Engro using various technical indicators. When you analyze Engro charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Engro Polymer Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Engro Polymer Chemicals on the next trading day is expected to be 33.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70, mean absolute percentage error of 4.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Engro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Engro Polymer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Engro Polymer Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Engro Polymer | Engro Polymer Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Engro Polymer Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Engro Polymer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Engro Polymer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.15 and 37.12, respectively. We have considered Engro Polymer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Engro Polymer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Engro Polymer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4965 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6971 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0506 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 105.2176 |
Predictive Modules for Engro Polymer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Engro Polymer Chemicals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Engro Polymer After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Engro Polymer at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Engro Polymer or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Engro Polymer, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Engro Polymer Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Engro Polymer's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Engro Polymer's historical news coverage. Engro Polymer's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.67 and 36.65, respectively. We have considered Engro Polymer's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Engro Polymer is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Engro Polymer Chemicals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Engro Polymer Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Engro Polymer is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Engro Polymer backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Engro Polymer, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 3.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
33.16 | 33.16 | 0.00 |
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Engro Polymer Hype Timeline
Engro Polymer Chemicals is currently traded for 33.16on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Engro is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Engro Polymer is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.16. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Engro Polymer to cross-verify your projections.Engro Polymer Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Engro Polymer's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Engro Polymer's future price movements. Getting to know how Engro Polymer's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Engro Polymer may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSOT | Masood Textile Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 9.99 | (7.46) | 19.32 | |
| FFL | Fauji Foods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.28 | (3.95) | 17.13 | |
| KSBP | KSB Pumps | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 1.68 | (2.30) | 6.81 | |
| MARI | Mari Energies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 1.37 | (2.28) | 6.52 | |
| LOADS | Loads | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.37 | (4.19) | 14.12 | |
| THCCL | Thatta Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.79 | (5.56) | 17.56 | |
| KAPCO | KOT Addu Power | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.07 | (2.49) | 14.45 | |
| REWM | Reliance Weaving Mills | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.32 | (0) | 8.93 | (7.25) | 20.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Engro Polymer
For every potential investor in Engro, whether a beginner or expert, Engro Polymer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Engro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Engro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Engro Polymer's price trends.Engro Polymer Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Engro Polymer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Engro Polymer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Engro Polymer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Engro Polymer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Engro Polymer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Engro Polymer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Engro Polymer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Engro Polymer Chemicals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Engro Polymer Risk Indicators
The analysis of Engro Polymer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Engro Polymer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting engro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Variance | 11.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Engro Polymer
The number of cover stories for Engro Polymer depends on current market conditions and Engro Polymer's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Engro Polymer is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Engro Polymer's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Engro Polymer Short Properties
Engro Polymer's future price predictability will typically decrease when Engro Polymer's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Engro Polymer Chemicals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Engro Polymer's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Engro Polymer's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 908.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 10.2 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 4.4 B |
Other Information on Investing in Engro Stock
Engro Polymer financial ratios help investors to determine whether Engro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Engro with respect to the benefits of owning Engro Polymer security.