EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund Forward View

EPIVX Fund

USD 14.26 -0.01 -0.07%

EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL at 13.54 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

A naive forecasting model for EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Europac International Value on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL at 13.54 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 14.57 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL

EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The forecast band spans 12.18 to 14.90. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.

Market Value

14.26

12.18

Downside

13.54

Expected Value

14.90

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	115.5616
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.2388
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0165
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	14.5674

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL

Volume-weighted price analysis for EUROPAC Mutual Fund gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line identify shifts in EUROPAC momentum before they appear in raw price.

EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Foreign Large Value space frame EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's pricing and running costs in context. Looking at EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Peer pricing is more meaningful when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's standing among rivals.

Green Century Msci Green Century Msci Clarkston Fund Institutional Large Pany Value Allianzgi Emerging Markets Muzinich Credit Opportunities Muzinich Credit Opportunities Marsico International Opportunities Disciplined Value Series Disciplined Value Series American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Europac International Value, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	14.26
	Day Typical Price	14.26
	Price Action Indicator	-0.01
	Period Momentum Indicator	-0.01
	Relative Strength Index	47.91

EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL Risk Indicators

Analyzing EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for europac mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for EUROPAC INTERNATIONAL.

	Mean Deviation	1.01
	Standard Deviation	1.36
	Variance	1.85

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average