Equity Residential Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

EQR Stock  USD 66.26  0.01  0.02%   
Equity Residential's Polynomial Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The fit is assessed against recent observations, so the output reflects the latest available data. The Polynomial Regression model projects Equity Residential at 67.87 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Polynomial Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Polynomial regression for Equity Residential fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Equity Residential at 67.87 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 47.45 .
This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Equity Residential's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Equity Residential  Equity Residential Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Equity Residential's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 66.53 to 69.22. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
66.26
67.87
Expected Value
69.22

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Equity Residential stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9155
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7779
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0127
SAESum of the absolute errors47.451
The model takes the form: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm. Higher-degree polynomials fit Equity Residential historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Equity Residential

Analyzing Equity Residential's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Equity Residential's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions. The rate of change in Equity Residential's trading volume often precedes price movements in Equity.

Equity Residential Related Equities

These stocks within the Real Estate space are often compared to Equity Residential by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Equity Residential's relative financial strength.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Equity Residential Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Equity Residential, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Equity Residential. These metrics are particularly useful when Equity Residential stock shows divergence from broader market trends.

Equity Residential Risk Indicators

Analyzing Equity Residential's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for equity stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Equity Residential. Semi-deviation focuses exclusively on returns below the mean, making it a more conservative risk gauge for Equity Residential than full standard deviation.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Equity Residential Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Equity Residential reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding388.75 million
Cash And Short Term Investments55.9 million

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