ERHC Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ERHE Stock | USD 0.0002 0 91.30% |
ERHC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ERHC Energy stock prices and determine the direction of ERHC Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ERHC Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of relative strength index of ERHC Energy's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ERHC Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ERHC Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ERHC Energy from the perspective of ERHC Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ERHC Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.13. ERHC Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 2.05E-4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ERHC Energy to cross-verify your projections. ERHC Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ERHC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ERHC using various technical indicators. When you analyze ERHC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ERHC Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ERHC Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000845, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ERHC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ERHC Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ERHC Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ERHC Energy | ERHC Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ERHC Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ERHC Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ERHC Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000002 and 188.05, respectively. We have considered ERHC Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ERHC Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ERHC Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.429 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0022 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 1.7618 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.1346 |
Predictive Modules for ERHC Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ERHC Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ERHC Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ERHC Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ERHC Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ERHC Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ERHC Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ERHC Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ERHC Energy's historical news coverage. ERHC Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 50.01, respectively. We have considered ERHC Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ERHC Energy is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ERHC Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
ERHC Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ERHC Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ERHC Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ERHC Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
38.91 | 188.05 | 0.33 | 1.21 | 1 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.0002 | 0.0002 | 2.51 |
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ERHC Energy Hype Timeline
ERHC Energy is currently traded for 0.0002. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.21. ERHC is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.05E-4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 2.51%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 38.91%. The volatility of related hype on ERHC Energy is about 606612.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.21. ERHC Energy currently holds 181.53 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.17, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ERHC Energy to cross-verify your projections.ERHC Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ERHC Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ERHC Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how ERHC Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ERHC Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WMELF | Westmount Energy Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 16.25 | 0.00 | 945.59 | |
| MMEX | MMEX Resources Corp | 0.31 | 18 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ARSEF | Altai Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 99.75 | |
| BDGR | Black Dragon Resource | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CGRA | Cgrowth Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 33.33 | (25.00) | 66.67 | |
| EFIR | EGPI Firecreek | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HXPN | Harris Exploration | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WTXR | West Texas Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 14.46 | 0.04 | 33.33 | (38.00) | 151.98 | |
| PTCO | PetroGas Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.49 | 0.03 | 30.61 | (24.71) | 93.30 | |
| PNRXF | Porto Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for ERHC Energy
For every potential investor in ERHC, whether a beginner or expert, ERHC Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ERHC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ERHC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ERHC Energy's price trends.ERHC Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ERHC Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ERHC Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ERHC Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ERHC Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ERHC Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ERHC Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ERHC Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ERHC Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.087 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.64 |
ERHC Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of ERHC Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ERHC Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting erhc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 107.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 31.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 245.35 | |||
| Variance | 60194.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3514.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1016.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (195.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ERHC Energy
The number of cover stories for ERHC Energy depends on current market conditions and ERHC Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ERHC Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ERHC Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ERHC Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade ERHC Stock refer to our How to Trade ERHC Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Will Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sector continue expanding? Could ERHC diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ERHC Energy. Projected growth potential of ERHC fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ERHC Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of ERHC Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ERHC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ERHC Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ERHC Energy's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because ERHC Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ERHC Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between ERHC Energy's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding ERHC Energy should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, ERHC Energy's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.