ESCO Technologies Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESE Stock | USD 236.08 2.99 1.28% |
ESCO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ESCO Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of ESCO Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ESCO Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of ESCO Technologies' stock price is about 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ESCO, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.495 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.71 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.79 | Wall Street Target Price 255 |
Using ESCO Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ESCO Technologies from the perspective of ESCO Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ESCO Technologies using ESCO Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ESCO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ESCO Technologies' stock price.
ESCO Technologies Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ESCO Technologies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ESCO. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ESCO Technologies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 197.9324 | Short Percent 0.0172 | Short Ratio 1.75 | Shares Short Prior Month 400 K | 50 Day MA 209.456 |
ESCO Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ESCO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 236.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.01.ESCO Technologies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ESCO Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ESCO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ESCO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ESCO Technologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ESCO Technologies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ESCO Technologies.
ESCO Technologies Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
ESCO Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ESCO Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ESCO Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ESCO Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when ESCO Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ESCO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 236.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.01. ESCO Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 236.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ESCO Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ESCO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ESCO Technologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With ESCO Technologies trading at USD 236.08, that is roughly USD 0.0605 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ESCO Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ESCO Technologies options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 ESCO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ESCO Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ESCO Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ESCO Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ESCO Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to ESCO Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ESCO Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ESCO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ESCO Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ESCO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ESCO using various technical indicators. When you analyze ESCO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ESCO Technologies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ESCO Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 236.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.12, mean absolute percentage error of 14.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ESCO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ESCO Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ESCO Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ESCO Technologies | ESCO Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ESCO Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ESCO Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ESCO Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 234.30 and 237.85, respectively. We have considered ESCO Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ESCO Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ESCO Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9429 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2294 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1168 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 187.005 |
Predictive Modules for ESCO Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ESCO Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ESCO Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ESCO Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ESCO Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ESCO Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ESCO Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ESCO Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ESCO Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ESCO Technologies' historical news coverage. ESCO Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 234.46 and 238.02, respectively. We have considered ESCO Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ESCO Technologies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ESCO Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
ESCO Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ESCO Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ESCO Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ESCO Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.78 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
236.08 | 236.24 | 0.07 |
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ESCO Technologies Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February ESCO Technologies is traded for 236.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. ESCO is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 236.24 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 119.46%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on ESCO Technologies is about 735.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 236.11. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.1 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 299.22 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 461.08 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ESCO Technologies to cross-verify your projections.ESCO Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ESCO Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ESCO Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how ESCO Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ESCO Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LFUS | Littelfuse | 5.67 | 9 per month | 1.76 | 0.13 | 3.90 | (3.64) | 8.56 | |
| BMI | Badger Meter | (2.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (4.32) | 16.79 | |
| VNT | Vontier Corp | (0.96) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.67 | (2.57) | 11.03 | |
| TTMI | TTM Technologies | 1.18 | 10 per month | 3.96 | 0.18 | 9.11 | (8.49) | 22.86 | |
| ITRI | Itron Inc | (0.43) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.51 | (4.16) | 24.28 | |
| NOVT | Novanta | (8.75) | 10 per month | 4.08 | 0.02 | 6.97 | (4.57) | 26.00 | |
| OSIS | OSI Systems | 2.72 | 7 per month | 2.67 | 0.0008 | 4.86 | (4.34) | 21.47 | |
| VICR | Vicor | 4.31 | 10 per month | 2.97 | 0.25 | 6.34 | (6.12) | 22.45 | |
| CAMT | Camtek | 0.94 | 10 per month | 3.10 | 0.08 | 7.61 | (5.85) | 15.59 | |
| CGNX | Cognex | 0.11 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.37 | (4.09) | 13.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for ESCO Technologies
For every potential investor in ESCO, whether a beginner or expert, ESCO Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ESCO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ESCO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ESCO Technologies' price trends.ESCO Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ESCO Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ESCO Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ESCO Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ESCO Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ESCO Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ESCO Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ESCO Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ESCO Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ESCO Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of ESCO Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ESCO Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting esco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 2.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ESCO Technologies
The number of cover stories for ESCO Technologies depends on current market conditions and ESCO Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ESCO Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ESCO Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ESCO Technologies Short Properties
ESCO Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when ESCO Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ESCO Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ESCO Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ESCO Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 101.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ESCO Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade ESCO Stock refer to our How to Trade ESCO Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could ESCO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ESCO Technologies. Projected growth potential of ESCO fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every ESCO Technologies data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 4.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.088 |
Investors evaluate ESCO Technologies using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating ESCO Technologies' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause ESCO Technologies' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between ESCO Technologies' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding ESCO Technologies should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, ESCO Technologies' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.