BNP Paribas Etf Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ESEE Etf  EUR 28.56  0.05  0.17%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BNP Paribas Easy on the next trading day is expected to be 28.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.26. BNP Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of BNP Paribas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for BNP Paribas - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When BNP Paribas prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in BNP Paribas price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of BNP Paribas Easy.

BNP Paribas Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BNP Paribas Easy on the next trading day is expected to be 28.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BNP Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BNP Paribas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BNP Paribas Etf Forecast Pattern

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BNP Paribas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BNP Paribas' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BNP Paribas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.58 and 29.54, respectively. We have considered BNP Paribas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.56
28.56
Expected Value
29.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BNP Paribas etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BNP Paribas etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.061
MADMean absolute deviation0.171
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors10.26
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past BNP Paribas observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older BNP Paribas Easy observations.

Predictive Modules for BNP Paribas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BNP Paribas Easy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BNP Paribas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.5828.5629.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.7030.0030.98
Details

Other Forecasting Options for BNP Paribas

For every potential investor in BNP, whether a beginner or expert, BNP Paribas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BNP Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BNP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BNP Paribas' price trends.

BNP Paribas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BNP Paribas etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BNP Paribas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BNP Paribas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BNP Paribas Easy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BNP Paribas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BNP Paribas' current price.

BNP Paribas Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BNP Paribas etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BNP Paribas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BNP Paribas etf market strength indicators, traders can identify BNP Paribas Easy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BNP Paribas Risk Indicators

The analysis of BNP Paribas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BNP Paribas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bnp etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in BNP Etf

BNP Paribas financial ratios help investors to determine whether BNP Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BNP with respect to the benefits of owning BNP Paribas security.