AuAg Gold Etf Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average
| ESGO Etf | 18.41 0.89 5.08% |
AuAg Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of AuAg Gold's share price is at 50 suggesting that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AuAg Gold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AuAg Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AuAg Gold Mining from the perspective of AuAg Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of AuAg Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 17.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.15. AuAg Gold after-hype prediction price | CHF 18.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AuAg |
AuAg Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AuAg price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AuAg using various technical indicators. When you analyze AuAg charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AuAg Gold 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of AuAg Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 17.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AuAg Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AuAg Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AuAg Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AuAg Gold | AuAg Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AuAg Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AuAg Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AuAg Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.28 and 19.82, respectively. We have considered AuAg Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AuAg Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AuAg Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 83.4697 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.7305 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9797 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0583 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.1475 |
Predictive Modules for AuAg Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AuAg Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AuAg Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AuAg Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AuAg Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of AuAg Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AuAg Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AuAg Gold's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AuAg Gold's historical news coverage. AuAg Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.64 and 21.18, respectively. We have considered AuAg Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AuAg Gold is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AuAg Gold Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
AuAg Gold Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as AuAg Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AuAg Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AuAg Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.41 | 18.41 | 0.00 |
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AuAg Gold Hype Timeline
AuAg Gold Mining is currently traded for 18.41on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.09. AuAg is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on AuAg Gold is about 1691.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.50. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AuAg Gold to cross-verify your projections.AuAg Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AuAg Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AuAg Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how AuAg Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AuAg Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARKG | ARK Genomic | (0.02) | 4 per month | 1.98 | 0 | 5.90 | (2.76) | 14.62 | |
| VFEM | Vanguard FTSE Emerging | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.71 | 0 | 1.43 | (1.31) | 4.47 | |
| CHSRIA | UBS ETF MSCI | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.49 | 0.05 | 0.89 | (0.96) | 2.36 | |
| CHIP | Amundi MSCI Semiconductors | 1.54 | 9 per month | 1.75 | 0.12 | 3.83 | (2.06) | 9.37 | |
| VSOL | VanEck Solana ETN | (0.21) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.14 | (6.83) | 23.01 | |
| SGWS | IShares MSCI World | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 13910159 | ZKB GOLD ETF | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 27IT | iSh iBds Dec27 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.54) | 0.19 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for AuAg Gold
For every potential investor in AuAg, whether a beginner or expert, AuAg Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AuAg Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AuAg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AuAg Gold's price trends.AuAg Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AuAg Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AuAg Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AuAg Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AuAg Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AuAg Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AuAg Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AuAg Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify AuAg Gold Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AuAg Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of AuAg Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AuAg Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting auag etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AuAg Gold
The number of cover stories for AuAg Gold depends on current market conditions and AuAg Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AuAg Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AuAg Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in AuAg Etf
AuAg Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether AuAg Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AuAg with respect to the benefits of owning AuAg Gold security.