Essilor International Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESLOY Stock | USD 122.74 0.78 0.64% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essilor International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 122.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.79. Essilor Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Essilor International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essilor International SA on the next trading day is expected to be 122.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essilor Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essilor International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Essilor International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Essilor International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Essilor International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essilor International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 121.61 and 123.87, respectively. We have considered Essilor International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essilor International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essilor International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8837 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0662 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0465 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0089 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.79 |
Predictive Modules for Essilor International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essilor International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Essilor International
For every potential investor in Essilor, whether a beginner or expert, Essilor International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essilor Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essilor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essilor International's price trends.Essilor International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essilor International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essilor International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essilor International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Essilor International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Essilor International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Essilor International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Essilor International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essilor International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essilor International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essilor International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Essilor International SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20.44 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.012987 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 122.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 122.76 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.78 |
Essilor International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Essilor International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essilor International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essilor pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8566 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9026 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Essilor Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Essilor International's price analysis, check to measure Essilor International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Essilor International is operating at the current time. Most of Essilor International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Essilor International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Essilor International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Essilor International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.