Espey Mfg Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ESP Stock | USD 54.61 0.71 1.32% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.22. Espey Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Espey Mfg's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Espey Mfg's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Espey Mfg fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Espey Mfg's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.246 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.83 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.14 | Wall Street Target Price 61 |
Using Espey Mfg hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Espey Mfg Electronics from the perspective of Espey Mfg response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Espey Mfg Electronics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Espey Mfg's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Espey. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Espey can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Espey Mfg Electronics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.22.
Espey Mfg after-hype prediction price | USD 54.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Espey Mfg to cross-verify your projections. Espey Mfg Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Espey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Espey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Espey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Espey Mfg Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Espey Mfg's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-06-30 | Previous Quarter 18.9 M | Current Value 22.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 3.7 M |
Espey Mfg Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Espey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Espey Mfg's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Espey Mfg Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Espey Mfg | Espey Mfg Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Espey Mfg Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Espey Mfg's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Espey Mfg's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.40 and 60.02, respectively. We have considered Espey Mfg's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Espey Mfg stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Espey Mfg stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8464 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7085 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.2211 |
Predictive Modules for Espey Mfg
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Espey Mfg Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Espey Mfg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Espey Mfg After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Espey Mfg at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Espey Mfg or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Espey Mfg, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Espey Mfg Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Espey Mfg's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Espey Mfg's historical news coverage. Espey Mfg's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.97 and 56.59, respectively. We have considered Espey Mfg's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Espey Mfg is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Espey Mfg Electronics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Espey Mfg Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Espey Mfg is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Espey Mfg backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Espey Mfg, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 2.31 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
54.61 | 54.28 | 0.71 |
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Espey Mfg Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Espey Mfg Electronics is traded for 54.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Espey is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 54.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Espey Mfg is about 2817.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.66. The company reported the last year's revenue of 43.95 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.14 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Espey Mfg to cross-verify your projections.Espey Mfg Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Espey Mfg's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Espey Mfg's future price movements. Getting to know how Espey Mfg's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Espey Mfg may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ULBI | Ultralife | (0.08) | 11 per month | 3.38 | (0.02) | 5.84 | (5.82) | 18.64 | |
| MATH | Metalpha Technology Holding | (0.06) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.94 | (6.21) | 20.85 | |
| SNT | Senstar Technologies | 0.10 | 9 per month | 5.11 | 0 | 8.66 | (7.90) | 32.07 | |
| OPXS | Optex Systems Holdings | 0.12 | 9 per month | 4.13 | (0.02) | 6.87 | (6.88) | 20.79 | |
| IRS | IRSA Inversiones Y | 0.34 | 35 per month | 1.59 | 0.16 | 3.98 | (2.98) | 36.65 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| GIFI | Gulf Island Fabrication | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 2.43 | (1.23) | 49.85 | |
| OPTT | Ocean Power Technologies | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.89 | (8.82) | 36.47 | |
| EML | Eastern Co | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.46 | (3.27) | 10.55 | |
| HURC | Hurco Companies | 0.91 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.18 | (3.44) | 11.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Espey Mfg
For every potential investor in Espey, whether a beginner or expert, Espey Mfg's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Espey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Espey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Espey Mfg's price trends.Espey Mfg Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Espey Mfg stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Espey Mfg could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Espey Mfg by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Espey Mfg Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Espey Mfg stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Espey Mfg shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Espey Mfg stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Espey Mfg Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Espey Mfg Risk Indicators
The analysis of Espey Mfg's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Espey Mfg's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting espey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Espey Mfg
The number of cover stories for Espey Mfg depends on current market conditions and Espey Mfg's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Espey Mfg is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Espey Mfg's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Espey Mfg Short Properties
Espey Mfg's future price predictability will typically decrease when Espey Mfg's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Espey Mfg Electronics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Espey Mfg's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Espey Mfg's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.6 M |
Additional Tools for Espey Stock Analysis
When running Espey Mfg's price analysis, check to measure Espey Mfg's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Espey Mfg is operating at the current time. Most of Espey Mfg's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Espey Mfg's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Espey Mfg's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Espey Mfg to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.