Esperion Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ESPR Stock | USD 2.98 0.09 3.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Esperion Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.13. Esperion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Esperion Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Esperion Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Esperion Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Esperion Therapeutics' share price is approaching 42 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Esperion Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2733 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0614 | Wall Street Target Price 6.5013 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
Using Esperion Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Esperion Therapeutics from the perspective of Esperion Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Esperion Therapeutics using Esperion Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Esperion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Esperion Therapeutics' stock price.
Esperion Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Esperion Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Esperion Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Esperion Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2.1678 | Short Percent 0.1437 | Short Ratio 6.62 | Shares Short Prior Month 28.8 M | 50 Day MA 3.5202 |
Esperion Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Esperion Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Esperion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Esperion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Esperion Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Esperion Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.07 |
Esperion Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Esperion Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Esperion Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Esperion Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Esperion Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Esperion Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.13. Esperion Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 2.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Esperion Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Esperion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Esperion Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0669% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Esperion Therapeutics trading at USD 2.98, that is roughly USD 0.001993 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Esperion Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Esperion Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 1.07%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Esperion Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Esperion Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Esperion Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Esperion Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Esperion Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Esperion Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Esperion Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Esperion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Esperion Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Esperion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Esperion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Esperion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Esperion Therapeutics Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Esperion Therapeutics' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2000-03-31 | Previous Quarter 86.1 M | Current Value 92.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 75.6 M |
Esperion Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Esperion Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Esperion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Esperion Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Esperion Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Esperion Therapeutics | Esperion Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Esperion Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Esperion Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Esperion Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.59, respectively. We have considered Esperion Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Esperion Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Esperion Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7712 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1496 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0452 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.1275 |
Predictive Modules for Esperion Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Esperion Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Esperion Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Esperion Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Esperion Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Esperion Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Esperion Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Esperion Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Esperion Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Esperion Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.87, respectively. We have considered Esperion Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Esperion Therapeutics is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Esperion Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Esperion Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Esperion Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Esperion Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Esperion Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 4.85 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.98 | 2.98 | 0.00 |
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Esperion Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Esperion Therapeutics is currently traded for 2.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Esperion is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Esperion Therapeutics is about 13857.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.97. About 47.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.54. Esperion Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:6 split on the 11th of June 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Esperion Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Esperion Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Esperion Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Esperion Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Esperion Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Esperion Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNDL | SNDL Inc | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.06 | (5.88) | 37.98 | |
| SIGA | SIGA Technologies | 0.04 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.56 | (3.08) | 23.51 | |
| AQST | Aquestive Therapeutics | 0.13 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.36 | (7.62) | 45.05 | |
| EBS | Emergent Biosolutions | (0.44) | 10 per month | 4.13 | 0.06 | 8.06 | (4.53) | 52.54 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | (0.40) | 3 per month | 3.68 | 0.20 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| CRVS | Corvus Pharmaceuticals | (0.23) | 8 per month | 2.66 | 0.13 | 6.94 | (5.51) | 16.87 | |
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | 0.46 | 10 per month | 3.75 | 0.13 | 9.82 | (6.13) | 145.73 | |
| OFIX | Orthofix Medical | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.60 | (3.36) | 11.43 | |
| ABSI | Absci Corp | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.58 | (6.98) | 28.53 | |
| RGNX | Regenxbio | 0.23 | 7 per month | 3.45 | 0.07 | 7.94 | (6.11) | 17.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Esperion Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Esperion, whether a beginner or expert, Esperion Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Esperion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Esperion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Esperion Therapeutics' price trends.Esperion Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Esperion Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Esperion Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Esperion Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Esperion Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Esperion Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Esperion Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Esperion Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Esperion Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Esperion Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Esperion Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Esperion Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting esperion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.75 | |||
| Variance | 22.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Esperion Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Esperion Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Esperion Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Esperion Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Esperion Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Esperion Therapeutics Short Properties
Esperion Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Esperion Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Esperion Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Esperion Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Esperion Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 187.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 144.8 M |
Additional Tools for Esperion Stock Analysis
When running Esperion Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Esperion Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Esperion Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Esperion Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Esperion Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Esperion Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Esperion Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.