Essity AB Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESSITY-A | SEK 257.00 1.00 0.39% |
Essity Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Essity AB stock prices and determine the direction of Essity AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Essity AB's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Essity AB's share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Essity AB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Essity AB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Essity AB from the perspective of Essity AB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essity AB on the next trading day is expected to be 256.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.81. Essity AB after-hype prediction price | SEK 256.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Essity |
Essity AB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Essity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Essity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Essity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Essity AB Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Essity AB on the next trading day is expected to be 256.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 10.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essity AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Essity AB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Essity AB | Essity AB Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Essity AB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Essity AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essity AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 255.63 and 258.06, respectively. We have considered Essity AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essity AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essity AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1995 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.8092 |
Predictive Modules for Essity AB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essity AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Essity AB's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Essity AB After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Essity AB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Essity AB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Essity AB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Essity AB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Essity AB's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Essity AB's historical news coverage. Essity AB's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 254.78 and 257.22, respectively. We have considered Essity AB's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Essity AB is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Essity AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Essity AB Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Essity AB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Essity AB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Essity AB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
257.00 | 256.00 | 0.00 |
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Essity AB Hype Timeline
Essity AB is currently traded for 257.00on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Essity is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Essity AB is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 257.00. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Essity AB was currently reported as 95.89. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. Essity AB recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essity AB to cross-verify your projections.Essity AB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Essity AB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Essity AB's future price movements. Getting to know how Essity AB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Essity AB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DUNI | Duni AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.09 | 2.00 | (1.50) | 12.00 | |
| CLEM | Clemondo Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | (0.02) | 4.35 | (3.66) | 9.46 | |
| ZZ-B | Zinzino AB Series | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.07 | 0.05 | 4.74 | (3.62) | 29.27 | |
| LCLEAN | Lifeclean International AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 9.09 | (12.86) | 25.45 | |
| LYKO-A | Lyko Group A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.27 | (4.35) | 17.79 | |
| AAK | AAK AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.51 | (1.94) | 5.60 | |
| AXFO | Axfood AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.04 | 1.49 | (1.05) | 7.54 | |
| CLA-B | Cloetta AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.13 | 2.20 | (1.60) | 6.96 | |
| ACAD | AcadeMedia AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | (0.04) | 2.09 | (2.86) | 10.78 | |
| CANDLE-B | Candles Scandinavia AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.14 | (7.94) | 14.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Essity AB
For every potential investor in Essity, whether a beginner or expert, Essity AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essity AB's price trends.Essity AB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essity AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essity AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essity AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Essity AB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essity AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essity AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essity AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essity AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Essity AB Risk Indicators
The analysis of Essity AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essity AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7352 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Variance | 1.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Essity AB
The number of cover stories for Essity AB depends on current market conditions and Essity AB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Essity AB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Essity AB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Essity AB Short Properties
Essity AB's future price predictability will typically decrease when Essity AB's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Essity AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Essity AB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Essity AB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 702.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.2 B |
Other Information on Investing in Essity Stock
Essity AB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Essity Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Essity with respect to the benefits of owning Essity AB security.