Evolva Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| EVE Stock | CHF 0.80 0.03 3.90% |
Evolva Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Evolva Holding's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Evolva Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Evolva Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolva Holding SA from the perspective of Evolva Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Evolva Holding SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.15. Evolva Holding after-hype prediction price | CHF 0.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Evolva |
Evolva Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evolva price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolva using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolva charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evolva Holding Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Evolva Holding SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolva Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evolva Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolva Holding | Evolva Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evolva Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evolva Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evolva Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.24, respectively. We have considered Evolva Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolva Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolva Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0353 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0417 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.1505 |
Predictive Modules for Evolva Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolva Holding SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evolva Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evolva Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolva Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolva Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evolva Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evolva Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolva Holding's historical news coverage. Evolva Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 5.31, respectively. We have considered Evolva Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evolva Holding is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolva Holding SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evolva Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evolva Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolva Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolva Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 4.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
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Evolva Holding Hype Timeline
Evolva Holding SA is currently traded for 0.80on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Evolva is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Evolva Holding is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.80. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Evolva Holding SA recorded a loss per share of 0.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2017. The firm had 250:1 split on the 15th of April 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolva Holding to cross-verify your projections.Evolva Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evolva Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolva Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Evolva Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolva Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ADXN | Addex Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.94 | (6.90) | 17.23 | |
| BSLN | Basilea Pharmaceutica AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.14 | 3.54 | (2.77) | 10.08 | |
| MOLN | Molecular Partners AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.40 | 0.03 | 7.56 | (5.78) | 22.81 | |
| NWRN | Newron Pharmaceuticals SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | 0.17 | 8.40 | (5.30) | 21.18 | |
| SANN | Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.18 | 0.12 | 8.25 | (4.67) | 18.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evolva Holding
For every potential investor in Evolva, whether a beginner or expert, Evolva Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evolva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evolva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evolva Holding's price trends.Evolva Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evolva Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evolva Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evolva Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolva Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evolva Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evolva Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evolva Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evolva Holding SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.32 |
Evolva Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evolva Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evolva Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evolva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.47 | |||
| Variance | 20.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evolva Holding
The number of cover stories for Evolva Holding depends on current market conditions and Evolva Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evolva Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evolva Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evolva Holding Short Properties
Evolva Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evolva Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evolva Holding SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evolva Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolva Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 786.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11 M |
Additional Tools for Evolva Stock Analysis
When running Evolva Holding's price analysis, check to measure Evolva Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolva Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Evolva Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolva Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolva Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolva Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.