Evaluator Aggressive Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

EVFGX Fund  USD 13.88  0.06  0.43%   
Evaluator Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Evaluator Aggressive's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Evaluator Aggressive's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Evaluator Aggressive Rms, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Evaluator Aggressive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evaluator Aggressive Rms from the perspective of Evaluator Aggressive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evaluator Aggressive Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 13.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.53.

Evaluator Aggressive after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.88  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Aggressive to cross-verify your projections.

Evaluator Aggressive Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Evaluator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evaluator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evaluator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Evaluator Aggressive simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Evaluator Aggressive Rms are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Evaluator Aggressive Rms prices get older.

Evaluator Aggressive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Evaluator Aggressive Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 13.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evaluator Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evaluator Aggressive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evaluator Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Evaluator Aggressive  Evaluator Aggressive Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Evaluator Aggressive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evaluator Aggressive's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evaluator Aggressive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.97 and 16.79, respectively. We have considered Evaluator Aggressive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.88
13.88
Expected Value
16.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evaluator Aggressive mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evaluator Aggressive mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8419
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0539
MADMean absolute deviation0.107
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors6.53
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Evaluator Aggressive Rms forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Evaluator Aggressive observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Evaluator Aggressive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evaluator Aggressive Rms. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.9713.8816.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2215.1318.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.3712.3415.31
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Evaluator Aggressive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Evaluator Aggressive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Evaluator Aggressive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Evaluator Aggressive Rms.

Evaluator Aggressive After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Evaluator Aggressive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evaluator Aggressive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Evaluator Aggressive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Evaluator Aggressive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Evaluator Aggressive's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evaluator Aggressive's historical news coverage. Evaluator Aggressive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.97 and 16.79, respectively. We have considered Evaluator Aggressive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.88
13.88
After-hype Price
16.79
Upside
Evaluator Aggressive is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evaluator Aggressive Rms is based on 3 months time horizon.

Evaluator Aggressive Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Evaluator Aggressive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evaluator Aggressive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evaluator Aggressive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48 
2.91
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.88
13.88
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Evaluator Aggressive Hype Timeline

Evaluator Aggressive Rms is currently traded for 13.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Evaluator is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on Evaluator Aggressive is about 174600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.88. The company last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Aggressive to cross-verify your projections.

Evaluator Aggressive Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Evaluator Aggressive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evaluator Aggressive's future price movements. Getting to know how Evaluator Aggressive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evaluator Aggressive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Evaluator Aggressive

For every potential investor in Evaluator, whether a beginner or expert, Evaluator Aggressive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evaluator Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evaluator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evaluator Aggressive's price trends.

Evaluator Aggressive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evaluator Aggressive mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evaluator Aggressive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evaluator Aggressive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evaluator Aggressive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evaluator Aggressive mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evaluator Aggressive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evaluator Aggressive mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Evaluator Aggressive Rms entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evaluator Aggressive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evaluator Aggressive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evaluator Aggressive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evaluator mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Evaluator Aggressive

The number of cover stories for Evaluator Aggressive depends on current market conditions and Evaluator Aggressive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evaluator Aggressive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evaluator Aggressive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Evaluator Mutual Fund

Evaluator Aggressive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Evaluator Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Evaluator with respect to the benefits of owning Evaluator Aggressive security.
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