Evofem Biosciences Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EVFM Stock | USD 0.01 0.0002 2.22% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evofem Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04. Evofem Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Evofem Biosciences' share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Evofem Biosciences hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evofem Biosciences from the perspective of Evofem Biosciences response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evofem Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04. Evofem Biosciences after-hype prediction price | USD 0.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Evofem |
Evofem Biosciences Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evofem price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evofem using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evofem charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evofem Biosciences Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evofem Biosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000065, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evofem Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evofem Biosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evofem Biosciences Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Evofem Biosciences Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evofem Biosciences' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evofem Biosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000092 and 9.16, respectively. We have considered Evofem Biosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evofem Biosciences pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evofem Biosciences pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 105.6956 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0587 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0375 |
Predictive Modules for Evofem Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evofem Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evofem Biosciences After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evofem Biosciences at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evofem Biosciences or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Evofem Biosciences, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evofem Biosciences Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evofem Biosciences' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evofem Biosciences' historical news coverage. Evofem Biosciences' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 10.04, respectively. We have considered Evofem Biosciences' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evofem Biosciences is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evofem Biosciences is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evofem Biosciences Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evofem Biosciences is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evofem Biosciences backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evofem Biosciences, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 9.15 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.01 | 0.01 | 8.70 |
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Evofem Biosciences Hype Timeline
Evofem Biosciences is currently traded for 0.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Evofem is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 8.7%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Evofem Biosciences is about 5648.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. The company has return on total asset (ROA) of (1.2475) % which means that it has lost $1.2475 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (3.8727) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Evofem Biosciences' management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Evofem Biosciences manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evofem Biosciences to cross-verify your projections.Evofem Biosciences Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evofem Biosciences' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evofem Biosciences' future price movements. Getting to know how Evofem Biosciences' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evofem Biosciences may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRZM | Marizyme | (0.31) | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UNBX | Unity Biotechnology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 11.01 | 0 | 22.58 | (17.00) | 87.87 | |
| CAIHF | Chia Tai Enterprises | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BIOR | Biora Therapeutics | (0.31) | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BINP | Bionoid Pharma | (0.31) | 17 per month | 13.73 | 0.11 | 34.69 | (36.36) | 176.17 | |
| ISCO | International Stem Cell | (0.31) | 5 per month | 4.39 | 0.03 | 14.29 | (7.69) | 39.08 | |
| BPTH | Bio Path Holdings | (0.07) | 4 per month | 7.07 | 0.06 | 20.00 | (16.67) | 55.56 | |
| BICTF | Biocure Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BMMJ | Body And Mind | (0.31) | 3 per month | 19.48 | 0.05 | 48.57 | (32.31) | 121.50 | |
| CTVEF | Certive Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evofem Biosciences
For every potential investor in Evofem, whether a beginner or expert, Evofem Biosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evofem Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evofem. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evofem Biosciences' price trends.Evofem Biosciences Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evofem Biosciences pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evofem Biosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evofem Biosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evofem Biosciences Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evofem Biosciences pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evofem Biosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evofem Biosciences pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Evofem Biosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2505.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0089 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.009 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.0E-4 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.0E-4 |
Evofem Biosciences Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evofem Biosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evofem Biosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evofem pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.9 | |||
| Variance | 97.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 146.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 46.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (14.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evofem Biosciences
The number of cover stories for Evofem Biosciences depends on current market conditions and Evofem Biosciences' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evofem Biosciences is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evofem Biosciences' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evofem Biosciences Short Properties
Evofem Biosciences' future price predictability will typically decrease when Evofem Biosciences' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evofem Biosciences often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evofem Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evofem Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.7 M |
Other Information on Investing in Evofem Pink Sheet
Evofem Biosciences financial ratios help investors to determine whether Evofem Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Evofem with respect to the benefits of owning Evofem Biosciences security.