Evaluator Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

EVGRX Fund  USD 12.01  0.02  0.17%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evaluator Growth Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 11.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05. Evaluator Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Evaluator Growth's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Evaluator Growth's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Evaluator Growth Rms, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Evaluator Growth hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evaluator Growth Rms from the perspective of Evaluator Growth response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evaluator Growth Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 11.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05.

Evaluator Growth after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Growth to cross-verify your projections.

Evaluator Growth Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Evaluator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evaluator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evaluator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Evaluator Growth is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Evaluator Growth Rms value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Evaluator Growth Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evaluator Growth Rms on the next trading day is expected to be 11.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evaluator Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evaluator Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evaluator Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Evaluator GrowthEvaluator Growth Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Evaluator Growth Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evaluator Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evaluator Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.40 and 14.11, respectively. We have considered Evaluator Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.01
11.26
Expected Value
14.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evaluator Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evaluator Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8576
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2304
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0223
SAESum of the absolute errors14.0528
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Evaluator Growth Rms. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Evaluator Growth. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Evaluator Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evaluator Growth Rms. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.8117.1520.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.4212.2815.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.2610.6613.07
Details

Evaluator Growth After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Evaluator Growth at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evaluator Growth or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Evaluator Growth, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Evaluator Growth Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Evaluator Growth's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evaluator Growth's historical news coverage. Evaluator Growth's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.81 and 20.01, respectively. We have considered Evaluator Growth's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.01
17.15
After-hype Price
20.01
Upside
Evaluator Growth is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evaluator Growth Rms is based on 3 months time horizon.

Evaluator Growth Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Evaluator Growth is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evaluator Growth backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evaluator Growth, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.42 
2.86
  7.06 
  1.63 
2 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.01
17.16
42.84 
17.02  
Notes

Evaluator Growth Hype Timeline

Evaluator Growth Rms is currently traded for 12.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 7.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.63. Evaluator is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.155 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 17.02%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 42.84%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Evaluator Growth is about 73.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.38. Debt can assist Evaluator Growth until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Evaluator Growth's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Evaluator Growth Rms sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Evaluator to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Evaluator Growth's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evaluator Growth to cross-verify your projections.

Evaluator Growth Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Evaluator Growth's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evaluator Growth's future price movements. Getting to know how Evaluator Growth's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evaluator Growth may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Evaluator Growth

For every potential investor in Evaluator, whether a beginner or expert, Evaluator Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evaluator Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evaluator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evaluator Growth's price trends.

Evaluator Growth Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evaluator Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evaluator Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evaluator Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evaluator Growth Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evaluator Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evaluator Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evaluator Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Evaluator Growth Rms entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evaluator Growth Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evaluator Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evaluator Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evaluator mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Evaluator Growth

The number of cover stories for Evaluator Growth depends on current market conditions and Evaluator Growth's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evaluator Growth is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evaluator Growth's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Evaluator Mutual Fund

Evaluator Growth financial ratios help investors to determine whether Evaluator Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Evaluator with respect to the benefits of owning Evaluator Growth security.
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance