Evonik Industries Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EVKIY Stock | USD 7.80 0.44 5.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evonik Industries AG on the next trading day is expected to be 7.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47. Evonik Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Evonik Industries' share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Evonik Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evonik Industries AG from the perspective of Evonik Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evonik Industries AG on the next trading day is expected to be 7.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47. Evonik Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 7.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Evonik |
Evonik Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evonik price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evonik using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evonik charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evonik Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evonik Industries AG on the next trading day is expected to be 7.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evonik Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evonik Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evonik Industries Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evonik Industries | Evonik Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evonik Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evonik Industries' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evonik Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.24 and 10.25, respectively. We have considered Evonik Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evonik Industries pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evonik Industries pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3458 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1224 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.468 |
Predictive Modules for Evonik Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evonik Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Evonik Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evonik Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evonik Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Evonik Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evonik Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evonik Industries' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evonik Industries' historical news coverage. Evonik Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.44 and 10.46, respectively. We have considered Evonik Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evonik Industries is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evonik Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evonik Industries Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evonik Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evonik Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evonik Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.51 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.80 | 7.95 | 1.92 |
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Evonik Industries Hype Timeline
Evonik Industries is currently traded for 7.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Evonik is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.95 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 1.92%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Evonik Industries is about 707.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.86. The company reported the revenue of 14.96 B. Net Income was 746 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.07 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evonik Industries to cross-verify your projections.Evonik Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evonik Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evonik Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Evonik Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evonik Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BNTGY | Brenntag AG ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.42 | (0.03) | 3.42 | (2.26) | 8.19 | |
| BNTGF | Brenntag AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 10.56 | |
| NDEKY | Nitto Denko Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.37 | (3.43) | 9.30 | |
| SCVUF | The Siam Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IMDZF | IMCD NV | 0.86 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | (0.53) | 30.61 | |
| MTLHY | Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings | 0.86 | 6 per month | 0.54 | 0.08 | 2.01 | (1.38) | 8.05 | |
| ASGLY | AGC Inc ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.37 | 0.04 | 5.37 | (4.81) | 14.08 | |
| JFEEF | JFE Holdings | 0.86 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 7.40 | |
| MMLTF | MMG Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 7.27 | (3.09) | 25.27 | |
| COIHY | Croda International PLC | 0.97 | 42 per month | 1.46 | (0.05) | 2.25 | (2.59) | 6.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evonik Industries
For every potential investor in Evonik, whether a beginner or expert, Evonik Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evonik Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evonik. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evonik Industries' price trends.Evonik Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evonik Industries pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evonik Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evonik Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evonik Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evonik Industries pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evonik Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evonik Industries pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Evonik Industries AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evonik Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evonik Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evonik Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evonik pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Variance | 6.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evonik Industries
The number of cover stories for Evonik Industries depends on current market conditions and Evonik Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evonik Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evonik Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Evonik Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Evonik Industries' price analysis, check to measure Evonik Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evonik Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Evonik Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evonik Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evonik Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evonik Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.