EZTEC Empreendimentos Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

EZTC3 Stock  BRL 12.85  1.04  7.49%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EZTEC Empreendimentos e on the next trading day is expected to be 12.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.83. EZTEC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for EZTEC Empreendimentos works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

EZTEC Empreendimentos Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EZTEC Empreendimentos e on the next trading day is expected to be 12.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EZTEC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EZTEC Empreendimentos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

EZTEC Empreendimentos Stock Forecast Pattern

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EZTEC Empreendimentos Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting EZTEC Empreendimentos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EZTEC Empreendimentos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.39 and 15.26, respectively. We have considered EZTEC Empreendimentos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.85
12.82
Expected Value
15.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EZTEC Empreendimentos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EZTEC Empreendimentos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0637
MADMean absolute deviation0.2852
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.021
SAESum of the absolute errors16.8286
When EZTEC Empreendimentos e prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any EZTEC Empreendimentos e trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent EZTEC Empreendimentos observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for EZTEC Empreendimentos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EZTEC Empreendimentos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.4513.8916.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.1311.5714.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as EZTEC Empreendimentos. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against EZTEC Empreendimentos' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, EZTEC Empreendimentos' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in EZTEC Empreendimentos.

Other Forecasting Options for EZTEC Empreendimentos

For every potential investor in EZTEC, whether a beginner or expert, EZTEC Empreendimentos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EZTEC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EZTEC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EZTEC Empreendimentos' price trends.

EZTEC Empreendimentos Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EZTEC Empreendimentos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EZTEC Empreendimentos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EZTEC Empreendimentos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

EZTEC Empreendimentos Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EZTEC Empreendimentos' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EZTEC Empreendimentos' current price.

EZTEC Empreendimentos Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EZTEC Empreendimentos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EZTEC Empreendimentos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EZTEC Empreendimentos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EZTEC Empreendimentos e entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

EZTEC Empreendimentos Risk Indicators

The analysis of EZTEC Empreendimentos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EZTEC Empreendimentos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eztec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for EZTEC Stock Analysis

When running EZTEC Empreendimentos' price analysis, check to measure EZTEC Empreendimentos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy EZTEC Empreendimentos is operating at the current time. Most of EZTEC Empreendimentos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of EZTEC Empreendimentos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move EZTEC Empreendimentos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of EZTEC Empreendimentos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.