Ford Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

F Stock  USD 12.17  0.48  4.11%   
Ford's Simple Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Simple Moving Average model projects Ford at 12.17 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Simple Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
The two-period moving average forecast for Ford replaces each daily closing price with the mean of that price and the preceding day's close. This produces a lightly smoothed series that closely tracks the actual price with a one-period lag.

Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Moving Average model forecasts Ford at 12.17 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 15.03 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Ford's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Ford's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 10.07 and upside around 14.26 for the next session. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
12.17
12.17
Expected Value
14.26

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Simple Moving Average model's error metrics for Ford stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.1585
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0366
MADMean absolute deviation0.2547
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors15.03
With only two periods, the model is highly responsive to recent Ford Motor price changes but provides minimal noise reduction. It is best suited for short-term evaluation of low-to-moderate volatility price series. A widening gap between the forecast and actual values may indicate an acceleration in price momentum.

Other Forecasting Options for Ford

Analyzing Ford's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Ford's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

Ford Related Equities

Investors studying Ford often look at related stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space to gauge pricing and results. Profit comparisons show whether Ford earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces. Tracking Ford's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ford Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Ford Motor, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Ford.

Ford Risk Indicators

Analyzing Ford's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ford stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Ford.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Ford Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Ford reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.98 billion
Cash And Short Term Investments38.49 billion

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