Covivio SA Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| F5D Stock | EUR 53.25 0.25 0.47% |
Covivio Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Covivio SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026, the value of RSI of Covivio SA's share price is approaching 40. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Covivio SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Covivio SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Covivio SA from the perspective of Covivio SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Covivio SA on the next trading day is expected to be 53.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.60. Covivio SA after-hype prediction price | EUR 53.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Covivio |
Covivio SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Covivio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Covivio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Covivio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Covivio SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Covivio SA on the next trading day is expected to be 53.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Covivio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Covivio SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Covivio SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Covivio SA | Covivio SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Covivio SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Covivio SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Covivio SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.39 and 54.11, respectively. We have considered Covivio SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Covivio SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Covivio SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7946 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0683 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3767 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.6 |
Predictive Modules for Covivio SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Covivio SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Covivio SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Covivio SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Covivio SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Covivio SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Covivio SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Covivio SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Covivio SA's historical news coverage. Covivio SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.39 and 54.11, respectively. We have considered Covivio SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Covivio SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Covivio SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Covivio SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Covivio SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Covivio SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Covivio SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
53.25 | 53.25 | 0.00 |
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Covivio SA Hype Timeline
Covivio SA is currently traded for 53.25on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Covivio is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Covivio SA is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.25. About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.56. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Covivio SA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of April 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Covivio SA to cross-verify your projections.Covivio SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Covivio SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Covivio SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Covivio SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Covivio SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 2LH | MOVIE GAMES SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.62 | (5.82) | 18.90 | |
| 1X8 | EUROBANK SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.48 | 3.92 | (2.03) | 5.94 | |
| XCA | CREDIT AGRICOLE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.03 | 1.86 | (2.24) | 5.46 | |
| E3G | Evolution Gaming Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.60 | (3.45) | 16.13 | |
| 4H7 | TROPHY GAMES DEV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.56 | 0.13 | 5.82 | (2.61) | 13.96 | |
| 9JU | GAMING FAC SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.00 | (4.10) | 27.22 | |
| TJW | Scientific Games | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.52 | 0.18 | 4.22 | (3.01) | 18.59 | |
| PN1 | PENN NATL GAMING | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.01 | (3.96) | 14.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Covivio SA
For every potential investor in Covivio, whether a beginner or expert, Covivio SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Covivio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Covivio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Covivio SA's price trends.Covivio SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Covivio SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Covivio SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Covivio SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Covivio SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Covivio SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Covivio SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Covivio SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Covivio SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 53.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 53.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.45 |
Covivio SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Covivio SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Covivio SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting covivio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6684 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8567 | |||
| Variance | 0.7339 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Covivio SA
The number of cover stories for Covivio SA depends on current market conditions and Covivio SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Covivio SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Covivio SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Covivio Stock
Covivio SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Covivio Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Covivio with respect to the benefits of owning Covivio SA security.