FACT II Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FACT Stock | USD 10.50 0.02 0.19% |
FACT Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of FACT II's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FACT II, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) |
Using FACT II hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FACT II Acquisition from the perspective of FACT II response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FACT II Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.75. FACT II after-hype prediction price | USD 10.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FACT II to cross-verify your projections. FACT II Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FACT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FACT using various technical indicators. When you analyze FACT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FACT II Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FACT II Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FACT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FACT II's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FACT II Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FACT II | FACT II Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FACT II Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FACT II's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FACT II's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.05 and 10.93, respectively. We have considered FACT II's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FACT II stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FACT II stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.9427 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0031 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0028 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.7462 |
Predictive Modules for FACT II
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FACT II Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FACT II's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FACT II After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FACT II at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FACT II or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FACT II, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FACT II Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FACT II's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FACT II's historical news coverage. FACT II's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.06 and 10.94, respectively. We have considered FACT II's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FACT II is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FACT II Acquisition is based on 3 months time horizon.
FACT II Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FACT II is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FACT II backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FACT II, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00 |
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FACT II Hype Timeline
FACT II Acquisition is currently traded for 10.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. FACT is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on FACT II is about 2000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.50. About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.31. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FACT II Acquisition had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FACT II to cross-verify your projections.FACT II Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FACT II's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FACT II's future price movements. Getting to know how FACT II's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FACT II may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 0.96 | |
| MACI | Melar Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.34 | (0.16) | 0.38 | (0.28) | 3.85 | |
| LEGT | Legato Merger Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.57 | (0.11) | 0.47 | (0.55) | 4.86 | |
| PMTR | Perimeter Acquisition Corp | (0.07) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.68 | (0.85) | 2.01 | |
| MLAC | Mountain Lake Acquisition | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.13 | (0.46) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 1.15 | |
| CEP | Cantor Equity Partners | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 11.42 | (19.97) | 42.44 | |
| RAC | Rithm Acquisition Corp | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.24 | (0.21) | 0.68 | (0.38) | 1.64 | |
| COPL | Copley Acquisition Corp | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.16 | (0.21) | 0.39 | (0.39) | 1.85 | |
| SOUL | Soulpower Acquisition | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.13 | (0.35) | 0.29 | (0.29) | 1.27 | |
| HCMA | HCM Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for FACT II
For every potential investor in FACT, whether a beginner or expert, FACT II's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FACT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FACT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FACT II's price trends.FACT II Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FACT II stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FACT II could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FACT II by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FACT II Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FACT II stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FACT II shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FACT II stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FACT II Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FACT II Risk Indicators
The analysis of FACT II's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FACT II's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fact stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2924 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.347 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4368 | |||
| Variance | 0.1908 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2817 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1204 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FACT II
The number of cover stories for FACT II depends on current market conditions and FACT II's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FACT II is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FACT II's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FACT II Short Properties
FACT II's future price predictability will typically decrease when FACT II's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FACT II Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FACT II's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FACT II's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.4 M |
Additional Tools for FACT Stock Analysis
When running FACT II's price analysis, check to measure FACT II's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FACT II is operating at the current time. Most of FACT II's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FACT II's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FACT II's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FACT II to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.