Falcon Metals Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

FALFF Stock  USD 0.07  0.07  3,025%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Falcon Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92. Falcon Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Falcon Metals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Falcon Metals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Falcon Metals Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Falcon Metals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Falcon Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Falcon Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Falcon Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Falcon Metals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Falcon MetalsFalcon Metals Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Falcon Metals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Falcon Metals' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Falcon Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0008 and 127.00, respectively. We have considered Falcon Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.07
0.0008
Downside
0.14
Expected Value
127.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Falcon Metals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Falcon Metals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.5987
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error2.2381
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9217
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Falcon Metals Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Falcon Metals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Falcon Metals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Falcon Metals Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0853.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0853.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Falcon Metals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Falcon Metals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Falcon Metals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Falcon Metals Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for Falcon Metals

For every potential investor in Falcon, whether a beginner or expert, Falcon Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Falcon Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Falcon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Falcon Metals' price trends.

Falcon Metals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Falcon Metals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Falcon Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Falcon Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Falcon Metals Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Falcon Metals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Falcon Metals' current price.

Falcon Metals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Falcon Metals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Falcon Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Falcon Metals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Falcon Metals Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Falcon Metals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Falcon Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Falcon Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting falcon pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Falcon Pink Sheet

Falcon Metals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Falcon Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Falcon with respect to the benefits of owning Falcon Metals security.