First Foundation Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

FBBAX Fund  USD 26.68  0.22  0.83%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation Total on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.51. First Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of First Foundation's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First Foundation's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Foundation Total, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using First Foundation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Foundation Total from the perspective of First Foundation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation Total on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.51.

First Foundation after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 26.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Foundation to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy First Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in First Foundation guide.

First Foundation Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through First Foundation price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

First Foundation Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of First Foundation Total on the next trading day is expected to be 26.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Foundation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Foundation Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest First FoundationFirst Foundation Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

First Foundation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Foundation's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Foundation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.03 and 27.27, respectively. We have considered First Foundation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.68
26.65
Expected Value
27.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Foundation mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Foundation mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7269
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2379
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors14.5089
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as First Foundation Total historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for First Foundation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Foundation Total. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.0626.6827.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.8426.4627.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Foundation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Foundation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Foundation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Foundation Total.

First Foundation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Foundation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Foundation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of First Foundation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Foundation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Foundation's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Foundation's historical news coverage. First Foundation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.06 and 27.30, respectively. We have considered First Foundation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
26.68
26.68
After-hype Price
27.30
Upside
First Foundation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Foundation Total is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Foundation Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as First Foundation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Foundation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Foundation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
0.62
 0.00  
  0.27 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
26.68
26.68
0.00 
3,100  
Notes

First Foundation Hype Timeline

First Foundation Total is currently traded for 26.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.27. First is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Foundation is about 16.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.95. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Foundation to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy First Mutual Fund please use our How to Invest in First Foundation guide.

First Foundation Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Foundation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Foundation's future price movements. Getting to know how First Foundation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Foundation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for First Foundation

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Foundation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Foundation's price trends.

First Foundation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Foundation mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Foundation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Foundation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Foundation Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Foundation mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Foundation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Foundation mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify First Foundation Total entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Foundation Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Foundation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Foundation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First Foundation

The number of cover stories for First Foundation depends on current market conditions and First Foundation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Foundation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Foundation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund

First Foundation financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Foundation security.
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