Fortune Brands Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

Key Indicators . Polynomial Regression . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Fortune Brands Innovations
FBIN Stock   39.92  -0.01  -0.03%   
Polynomial Regression is applied to Fortune Brands Innovations's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. AIC measures relative model quality — lower AIC values indicate a better-fitting model. The Polynomial Regression model projects Fortune Brands at 41.48 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Polynomial regression for Fortune Brands fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Fortune Brands at 41.48 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.76 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 107.29 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Fortune Brands' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fortune Brands  Fortune Brands Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Fortune Brands frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 38.00 and upside near 44.96. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
39.92
38.00
Downside
41.48
Expected Value
44.96
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Fortune Brands stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.672
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7588
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.039
SAESum of the absolute errors107.2895
The model takes the form: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm. Higher-degree polynomials fit Fortune Brands Innovations historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Fortune Brands

The distribution of Fortune Brands' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Fortune Brands' chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Fortune Brands' linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price foreshadow trend changes in Fortune Brands.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Fortune Brands Related Equities

These stocks are related to Fortune Brands within the Industrials space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Growth rate gaps between Fortune Brands and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fortune Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Fortune Brands stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Fortune Brands. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Fortune Brands sessions. Persistent divergence between momentum indicators and price often precedes trend reversals in Fortune Brands.
Rate Of Daily Change1.0
Day Median Price39.92
Day Typical Price39.92
Price Action Indicator-0.01
Period Momentum Indicator-0.01
Relative Strength Index38.3

Fortune Brands Risk Indicators

Assessing Fortune Brands' risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for fortune brands stock. The level of risk embedded in Fortune Brands' feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Fortune Brands' downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses. These risk measures complement the price analysis above by framing how dispersed recent returns have been.
Mean Deviation2.46
Standard Deviation3.64
Variance13.26
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Fortune Brands Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Fortune Brands is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding121.2 million
Cash And Short Term Investments264 million

More Resources for Fortune Brands Stock Analysis

A structured review of Fortune Brands begins with its financial statements and broad trends. Financial ratios summarize performance across earnings and efficiency.
Fortune Brands Risk and Volatility Profile
Details
Fortune Brands Stock Market Risk Analysis
Details
What is Fortune Brands' Net Worth?
Details
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