First Trust Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FBT Etf | USD 219.25 2.61 1.18% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Trust NYSE on the next trading day is expected to be 219.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.99. First Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of First Trust's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Trust NYSE from the perspective of First Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Trust using First Trust's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Trust's stock price.
First Trust Implied Volatility | 0.22 |
First Trust's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Trust NYSE stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Trust's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Trust stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Trust's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Trust NYSE on the next trading day is expected to be 219.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.99. First Trust after-hype prediction price | USD 221.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Trust to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Trust NYSE will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0138% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With First Trust trading at USD 219.25, that is roughly USD 0.0301 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Trust's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Trust NYSE options at the current volatility level of 0.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Trust's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Trust's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Trust stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Trust's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Trust's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Trust is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Trust Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Trust NYSE on the next trading day is expected to be 219.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.07, mean absolute percentage error of 7.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Trust Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Trust | First Trust Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Trust's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 217.92 and 220.58, respectively. We have considered First Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Trust etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Trust etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3345 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4768 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0665 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.99 |
Predictive Modules for First Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust NYSE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Trust After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of First Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Trust's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Trust's historical news coverage. First Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 220.26 and 222.92, respectively. We have considered First Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Trust NYSE is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Trust Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as First Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.33 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
219.25 | 221.59 | 0.16 |
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First Trust Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January First Trust NYSE is traded for 219.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 221.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 94.33%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on First Trust is about 302.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 219.14. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Trust to cross-verify your projections.First Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how First Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QQXT | First Trust NASDAQ 100 | (1.20) | 1 per month | 0.56 | (0.08) | 1.13 | (1.02) | 2.86 | |
| ILCV | iShares Morningstar Value | (0.21) | 4 per month | 0.40 | 0.01 | 1.17 | (0.82) | 3.26 | |
| CGIE | Capital Group International | 0.34 | 2 per month | 0.69 | (0.01) | 1.26 | (1.20) | 3.45 | |
| LGLV | SPDR SSGA Large | (1.25) | 3 per month | 0.46 | (0.06) | 0.96 | (0.89) | 2.46 | |
| FVAL | Fidelity Value Factor | (0.33) | 5 per month | 0.63 | 0.01 | 1.27 | (1.16) | 3.49 | |
| GPIX | Goldman Sachs SP | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.61 | (0.06) | 1.01 | (0.93) | 3.10 | |
| OIH | VanEck Oil Services | 2.67 | 4 per month | 1.32 | 0.21 | 4.38 | (2.90) | 9.53 | |
| FTA | First Trust Large | (0.28) | 29 per month | 0.42 | 0.06 | 1.50 | (1.06) | 3.31 | |
| FNX | First Trust Mid | (3.83) | 4 per month | 0.80 | 0.04 | 1.79 | (1.47) | 3.88 | |
| HFXI | IQ 50 Percent | (0.28) | 1 per month | 0.49 | 0.06 | 1.16 | (1.14) | 3.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Trust
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Trust's price trends.First Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Trust etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Trust etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Trust etf market strength indicators, traders can identify First Trust NYSE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.009 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.31) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 220.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 219.91 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.99 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.61) |
First Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9362 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7485 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5603 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Trust
The number of cover stories for First Trust depends on current market conditions and First Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Trust to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
The market value of First Trust NYSE is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.