First Bankers OTC Stock Forward View
| FBTT Stock | USD 25.25 2.20 9.54% |
First OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of First Bankers' share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the otc stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down. Momentum 77
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Bankers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Bankers Trustshares from the perspective of First Bankers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Bankers Trustshares on the next trading day is expected to be 25.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.63. First Bankers after-hype prediction price | USD 25.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
First Bankers Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Bankers Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Bankers Trustshares on the next trading day is expected to be 25.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bankers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Bankers OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Bankers | First Bankers Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
First Bankers Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Bankers' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bankers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.06 and 26.58, respectively. We have considered First Bankers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bankers otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bankers otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7812 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2398 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.6283 |
Predictive Modules for First Bankers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bankers Trustshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Bankers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Bankers After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Bankers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Bankers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of First Bankers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Bankers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Bankers' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Bankers' historical news coverage. First Bankers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.99 and 26.51, respectively. We have considered First Bankers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Bankers is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Bankers Trustshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Bankers OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as First Bankers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Bankers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Bankers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.25 | 25.25 | 0.00 |
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First Bankers Hype Timeline
First Bankers Trustshares is currently traded for 25.25. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Bankers is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.25. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.67. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Bankers Trustshares last dividend was issued on the 22nd of December 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 27th of August 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Bankers to cross-verify your projections.First Bankers Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Bankers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Bankers' future price movements. Getting to know how First Bankers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Bankers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KEFI | Keweenaw Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BSFO | Bank of San | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.12 | 4.79 | (1.64) | 15.38 | |
| SVBT | SVB T Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 2.42 | (0.81) | 6.00 | |
| BSPA | Ballston Spa Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.46 | (0.46) | 14.71 | |
| CIWV | Citizens Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | 0.02 | 1.60 | (1.03) | 5.74 | |
| FRSB | First Resource Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 2.51 | (0.45) | 5.49 | |
| CCBC | Chino Commercial Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.0001) | 1.39 | 0.00 | 6.22 | |
| MNMB | Merchants Marine Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | (0.01) | 1.61 | (1.79) | 6.16 | |
| SLRK | Solera National Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.06 | 3.94 | (3.07) | 11.30 | |
| GSBX | Golden State Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.61 | (0.48) | 7.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Bankers
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bankers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bankers' price trends.First Bankers Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bankers otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bankers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bankers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Bankers Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Bankers otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Bankers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Bankers otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Bankers Trustshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Bankers Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Bankers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bankers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8184 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.748 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.24) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.74) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Bankers
The number of cover stories for First Bankers depends on current market conditions and First Bankers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Bankers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Bankers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for First OTC Stock Analysis
When running First Bankers' price analysis, check to measure First Bankers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Bankers is operating at the current time. Most of First Bankers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Bankers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Bankers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Bankers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.