Frontier Mfg Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FCIVX Fund  USD 13.27  0.03  0.23%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Frontier Mfg E on the next trading day is expected to be 13.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.36. Frontier Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Frontier Mfg's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Frontier Mfg's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Frontier Mfg E, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Frontier Mfg hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Frontier Mfg E from the perspective of Frontier Mfg response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Frontier Mfg E on the next trading day is expected to be 13.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.36.

Frontier Mfg after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Frontier Mfg to cross-verify your projections.

Frontier Mfg Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Frontier price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Frontier using various technical indicators. When you analyze Frontier charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Frontier Mfg is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Frontier Mfg E value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Frontier Mfg Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Frontier Mfg E on the next trading day is expected to be 13.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Frontier Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Frontier Mfg's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Frontier Mfg Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Frontier MfgFrontier Mfg Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Frontier Mfg Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Frontier Mfg's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Frontier Mfg's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.99 and 18.52, respectively. We have considered Frontier Mfg's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.27
13.26
Expected Value
18.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Frontier Mfg mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Frontier Mfg mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.045
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4575
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0445
SAESum of the absolute errors28.3624
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Frontier Mfg E. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Frontier Mfg. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Frontier Mfg

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Frontier Mfg E. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Frontier Mfg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.0313.3018.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.4311.7016.97
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.4111.9715.53
Details

Frontier Mfg After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Frontier Mfg at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Frontier Mfg or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Frontier Mfg, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Frontier Mfg Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Frontier Mfg's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Frontier Mfg's historical news coverage. Frontier Mfg's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.03 and 18.57, respectively. We have considered Frontier Mfg's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.27
13.30
After-hype Price
18.57
Upside
Frontier Mfg is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Frontier Mfg E is based on 3 months time horizon.

Frontier Mfg Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Frontier Mfg is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Frontier Mfg backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Frontier Mfg, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.70 
5.27
  0.03 
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.27
13.30
0.23 
13,175  
Notes

Frontier Mfg Hype Timeline

Frontier Mfg E is currently traded for 13.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Frontier is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 13.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.7%. The volatility of related hype on Frontier Mfg is about 87833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.27. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Frontier Mfg to cross-verify your projections.

Frontier Mfg Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Frontier Mfg's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Frontier Mfg's future price movements. Getting to know how Frontier Mfg's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Frontier Mfg may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FMGIXFrontier Mfg E(0.01)1 per month 0.00  0.11  0.70 (0.66) 41.55 
IAFMXFm Investments Large 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.00 (1.92) 13.58 
IAFLXFm Investments Large 0.00 0 per month 1.05  0.03  1.94 (1.91) 12.14 
NSDVXNorth Star Dividend(0.02)1 per month 0.78 (0.01) 1.91 (1.47) 3.85 
MTPIXTarget 2030 Series 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
RYTIXTechnology Fund Investor(0.02)3 per month 1.55 (0.03) 1.80 (3.07) 6.18 
GBATXGmo Strategic Opportunities 0.00 0 per month 0.18  0.11  1.09 (0.80) 2.50 
SSGFXSextant Growth Fund 0.00 0 per month 0.94 (0.06) 1.36 (1.78) 4.84 
SWYBXSchwab Target 2015 0.01 1 per month 0.25 (0.19) 0.52 (0.45) 1.41 
JSVTXPerkins Select Value(0.02)1 per month 0.60  0.12  2.29 (1.47) 11.41 

Other Forecasting Options for Frontier Mfg

For every potential investor in Frontier, whether a beginner or expert, Frontier Mfg's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Frontier Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Frontier. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Frontier Mfg's price trends.

Frontier Mfg Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Frontier Mfg mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Frontier Mfg could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Frontier Mfg by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Frontier Mfg Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Frontier Mfg mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Frontier Mfg shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Frontier Mfg mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Frontier Mfg E entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Frontier Mfg Risk Indicators

The analysis of Frontier Mfg's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Frontier Mfg's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting frontier mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Frontier Mfg

The number of cover stories for Frontier Mfg depends on current market conditions and Frontier Mfg's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Frontier Mfg is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Frontier Mfg's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Frontier Mutual Fund

Frontier Mfg financial ratios help investors to determine whether Frontier Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Frontier with respect to the benefits of owning Frontier Mfg security.
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