CIT Group Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FCNCO Preferred Stock | USD 23.66 0.31 1.29% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CIT Group Preferred on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48. CIT Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
CIT |
CIT Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CIT Group Preferred on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CIT Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CIT Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CIT Group Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
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CIT Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CIT Group's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CIT Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.93 and 24.39, respectively. We have considered CIT Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CIT Group preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CIT Group preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8243 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0087 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1413 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0059 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.48 |
Predictive Modules for CIT Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CIT Group Preferred. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CIT Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for CIT Group
For every potential investor in CIT, whether a beginner or expert, CIT Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CIT Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CIT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CIT Group's price trends.CIT Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CIT Group preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CIT Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CIT Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CIT Group Preferred Technical and Predictive Analytics
The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CIT Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CIT Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CIT Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CIT Group preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CIT Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CIT Group preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CIT Group Preferred entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 112.62 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.33) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.31) |
CIT Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of CIT Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CIT Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cit preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5436 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5612 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7041 | |||
| Variance | 0.4957 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4289 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3149 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with CIT Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if CIT Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in CIT Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to CIT Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace CIT Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back CIT Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling CIT Group Preferred to buy it.
The correlation of CIT Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as CIT Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if CIT Group Preferred moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for CIT Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in CIT Preferred Stock
CIT Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether CIT Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CIT with respect to the benefits of owning CIT Group security.